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We're exactly two-thirds of the way through the NASCAR season. Phil Bobbitt is here to share his favorite lottery ticket to win the NASCAR Championship. Read on to find out why Christopher Bell is a lock.

NASCAR Cup Series Championship 2022 | Winner
Christopher Bell
ANALYSIS

NASCAR Championship Predictions and Odds: Is Christopher Bell a Lock for the NASCAR Championship?

We're exactly two-thirds of the way through the NASCAR season. Everybody is talking about their favorite NFL and college football futures, and we're feeling a little bit left out. We figured it's about time we pick our favorite lottery ticket to win the NASCAR Championship.

We recommend you shop around for this one. FanDuel is the worst and obviously protecting themselves against the publication of this article by hanging +1300. We totally don't blame them. Sugarhouse and PointsBet are also cowards with their offer of +1400. DraftKings and Caesars are in the right neighborhood at +1500. BetMGM really wants the smoke, so that's where we should play. But if you have to get down on one of the other sites, that's just what you have to do. You don't want to be left behind when this thing cashes in November.

NASCAR Championship Start Time, Where to Watch, Odds

Date: November 6, 2022

Start Time: 3:00 pm ET

Where to Watch: NBC

Click Here for the latest NASCAR Championship Odds

NASCAR Championship Picks

Christopher Bell to Win the NASCAR Championship (+1600) (Bet $00 to win $1600)

*Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing*

Christopher Bell to Make the Championship Four (+250) (Bet $00 to win $250)

*Odds available at Sugarhouse at time of publishing*

You may have stumbled onto Oddschecker.us for the @Sloprules and @deadprespicks articles. Not a bad reason to be here...those guys are winners. Maybe we've helped you get into NASCAR and Formula 1 betting. Or perhaps you're a complete degenerate (like me) and just blind tail any article you read. If that's the case you've probably never seen or heard of Christopher Bell.

If you find yourself googling this guy, you might be thinking that you don't want to make a wager on a driver that looks like he should be in high school. Throw on those after-school cartoons, bust out your favorite Lunchable and slam that straw into your Capri Sun. We've got a brilliant bet to place.

When most handicappers are doing their quick and dirty season win totals, it always starts out just scanning the schedule and giving it the old win/loss routine. We want you to feel comfortable with betting on a NASCAR future, so we'll dive into it the same way.

The Nascar playoff format is built for drama. The highest ranked 16 race winners will make the show, and every three weeks the bottom four drivers are cut. The drivers tally points based on individual stages won, overall race wins, stage finishing positions, and race finishing positions. If you win a race, you automatically move into the next round.

NASCAR Championship Predictions

Round of Sixteen Prediction

Christopher Bell is projected to start the playoffs in the tenth position. He's accumulated 11 bonus points throughout the year so far but could earn a handful more over the next two regular-season races. Let's not count that out, but for argument's sake, let's stick with this.

The three races in this round are Darlington, Kansas, and Bristol...three very different track types. We've raced on all three of these circuits already in 2022, but Bristol was covered in dirt the last time.

Bell finished 6th at Darlington after leading three laps and turning eight fastest laps. He was in 13th position at the 90% mark in the race and closed seven positions by race end, while posting the fifth highest driver rating. Over the past two seasons, we have him pegged as the seventh-ranked driver at this course.

Kansas was another fine run by Bell in 2022. He finished fifth and posted the fourth highest driver rating while leading 37 laps and turning 22 fast ones. This track is another positive expected value track for Christopher Bell.

Bristol has not been very kind to Bell during his short Cup Series career. He is our 17th-rated driver since 2021, with only one Top Ten finish. His average finishing position is 22.3...not great. But we see a silver lining with his average running position of 13.3, which is 6 positions higher than his average starting position. Are we looking for some confirmation bias here? Yes. We obviously don't want to use a metric that proves us wrong, but this does show that Bell perhaps hasn't gotten the finishes he has deserved.

Round of 16 verdict: Net Positive. 0% chance of elimination.

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Round of Twelve Prediction - (Texas, Talledega, Charlotte Roval)

Texas is an absolute snooze-fest of a race. Word on the street is that Nascar is over-hauling the track during the off-season to create a better product. Christopher Bell loves the current configuration though, finishing 21st in his first trip as a rookie but backing it up with two straight third-place finishes. He is our 10th-ranked driver in Texas and eighth in average fast laps since 2021.

Talledega will definitely be a crapshoot like superspeedways usually are. However, Bell is an above-average racer here, with the ninth best average finish metric while leading the ninth most laps. He has the fourth-best average running position at Talledega and fifth-best average driver rating. This is a good track for Bell as long as he can avoid the big one.

The Charlotte Roval is a big-time track for Bell to advance through this round. He is power-rated sixth on our road course metric since 2021 with five top 10s in ten races. He has a win on the Daytona road course and is always a threat to win when turning left and right is the soup de-jour.

Round of 12 verdict: Net positive, 0% chance of elimination. He may win any of these races and grab the automatic pass to the next round.

Round of Eight Prediction - (Las Vegas, Homestead, Martinsville)

Bell has finished 17/5/22 at Las Vegas, but checks in at 11th in our power rating metric on the strength of his ninth most laps led and 12th most fast laps.

Homestead is not a track where we feel overly confident in Bell. Hopefully, he's got himself above the cutline by this time, and his eighth and 20th place finishes here won't be that big of a concern. We know that Bell has shown improvement on quite a few tracks this year compared to last and think the new generation car has allowed him to showcase his skills.

Martinsville is a short flat track, and Bell makes his hay on this type. We saw him dominate New Hampshire, and have blown the field away in the lower divisions of Nascar on short flats historically. He's got two top-10 finishes in three starts since 2021. Getting through this round will be the biggest obstacle of the playoffs.

Round of 8 verdict - Net zero, 30-40% chance of elimination. Martinsville is a potential win spot.

Click Here for the latest NASCAR Top Four Odds

The Final Four Prediction - Phoenix Raceway

Bell is our 11th-rated driver at Phoenix. But in this round, you don't have to win the race to be the champion, you just need to finish ahead of the other three finalists. I'm not great at math, but that's not many drivers you need to beat.

He won in the Xfinity Series in 2018, so he knows how to get around this joint. He's got two top-10s in the three Phoenix starts since 2021, is seventh in laps lead, and 11th in fast laps.

Phoenix is another short flat track. Christopher Bell has shown remarkable improvement in 2022 on this track type, and we figure him to be the biggest threat to overtake the favorites in this year's Championship race. It's 16/1 for a reason, but there is a realistic script where this thing cashes.

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Phil and Steve are lifelong buddies from the Philadelphia area. They specialize in all things motorsports and turned in a 131.3 unit profit in 2021.

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