NASCAR Predictions and Picks: Can We Trust Kyle Larson, Ty Gibbs at Sunoco Go Rewards 200 at the Glen?
NASCAR Predictions and Picks: Can We Trust Kyle Larson, Ty Gibbs at Sunoco Go Rewards 200 at the Glen?
We got a reprieve last weekend as the Xfinity Series guys had a bye. We were saved from the inevitable bonehead antics that these drivers throw at us week in and week out. I can definitively point to the Xfinity Series as the reason I found the first gray hair in my beard. Some may even say that I'm on my way to being a silver fox.
Sunoco Go Rewards 200 at the Glen Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
Date: Saturday, August 20
Time: 3:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: USA
Click Here for Sunoco Go Rewards 200 Odds
NASCAR Sunoco Go Rewards 200 at the Glen Prediction
This entry field is absolutely loaded. Sunday regulars (and Cup Series playoff drivers) William Byron, Ross Chastain, and Kyle Larson will be moonlighting on Saturday afternoon. Another Cup Series driver, Cole Custer, has also thrown his hat into the ring. Will the Xfinity studs AJ Allmendinger, Ty Gibbs, or Justin Allgaier be able to keep the trophy where it belongs? What does a top-heavy roster do to outright market?
NASCAR Sunoco Go Rewards 200 at the Glen Pick
Austin Hill to finish better than Noah Gragson (-115) (Bet $115 to win $100)
*Odds available at Sugarhouse at time of publishing*
My least favorite thing to do in the Xfinity Series is a bet against Noah Gragson. If we had a "Circle of Trust" like Slop, Gragson wouldn't be in it. But, he is the @speedwaysteve2 headquarters unanimous favorite driver in this series because he is so fun to watch. For the record, we don't hate fun, but we do value predictability.
Austin Hill has been a quiet assassin on road courses. In the 2021 Truck Series event, Hill won at Watkins Glen after leading 35 of 61 laps. His road course resume has been more than solid in the 2022 Xfinity road course department as well. He's bagged finishes of 2/3/4/9 for an impressive average of 4.5...second amongst the series regulars. He's third best amongst series regulars in average qualifying position (7.3). These races are much shorter than the Cup Series which intensifies the importance of getting upfront.
Noah Gragson is one of the more skilled guys in this series, as proven by his promotion to the Cup Series for next season. He has stitched together finishes on the road courses of 4/9/8/10 on the road courses this season. Nothing to shake a stick at, but not as dominant as he can be on other track types. He also averages a starting position more than two spots behind Hill.
We mentioned track position earlier. It is worth noting that Austin Hill's pit team has outperformed Noah Gragson's by a significant margin in 2022. Hill ranks fourth with an average stop of 16.7 seconds, and has notched 15 Top-10 pitstop times during tracked cycles. Gragson's garage lags behind with a 17.8 seconds average and only ten Top-10 stops.
Anything can happen with these knuckleheads and the variance is higher in this Series than any others, if that's even possible.
NASCAR Sunoco Go Rewards 200 at the Glen Pick
Ty Gibbs to finish inside the Top-3 (+100) (Bet $100 to win $100)
*Odds available at Sugarhouse at time of publishing*
This is purely a numbers play. Our hands are tied. The sportsbooks are giving us the chance to play last year's Watkin's Glen champ at even money for a podium. He led 43 of 82 laps and turned the most fasties (21). Is that a term? Fasties? It should be. Let's make that a thing.
Gibbs has won on a road course already this year, grabbing the lead from Kyle Larson on the last lap at Road America just a few weeks ago. That entry list was also littered with Cup Series regulars and Gibbs showed us a little of his moxie that day. Gibbs' driver rating and laps led is second in 2022 on road courses, while he owns the most roadie fast laps.
Gibbs has the sixth-best pit crew of the series regulars, clocking an average of four tires and a fuel pit stop at 16.8 seconds. They've been better than their season-long average in three out of the last four races, showing us a positive trend.
We also like that Ty Gibbs has been doing double-duty in the Cup Series, driving for the Monster Energy No. 45 for the concussed Kurt Busch. It is a playoff-bound ride, so Gibbs has been forced to swim after being tossed into the deep end. The added track time is invaluable, some of which has come on road courses.
NASCAR Sunoco Go Rewards 200 at the Glen Pick
Kyle Larson to outright win (+300) (Bet $100 to win $300)
*Odds available at Draftkings at time of publishing*
Gross, right? You were probably expecting us to travel further down the board to find value. But sometimes chalk comes home, and we think this could do the trick. Larson is last year's Cup champion and won the 2021 ESPY for the world's best driver. When a guy like this moves into a lesser series, it normally shortens the entire board (math). However, it is artificially held up with the presence of professional nuisance Ross Chastain, who won on a Cup Series Road course earlier this year. Unfortunately for Ross, this road course is not nearly as technical as the others that he's driven the No. 192 turd, and car performance will be much more important.
William Byron will be driving nearly identical equipment as Larson but we don't think he'll be able to heat him up. Byron hasn't been impressive for the past few months, even when given absolute hot rods to drive. You may think AJ Allmendinger presents the biggest threat to crash the Larson party in victory lane, but he has vocally expressed some concerns about Watkins Glen. They are changing the tire compound to a harder type, which may not be in AJ's wheelhouse. The Dinger limped home in the 25th last year even though he does sport the most polished road course resume in the field.
Larson's the guy. Look no further.