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This Friday NASCAR is headed to Bristol, Tennessee for the Xfinity Series' Food City 300 race. Is Josh Berry good value this Friday? Phil Bobbitt is here to break down the race.

NASCAR Predictions and Picks: Is Josh Berry Good Value at Food City 300?

Friday night Xfinity racing should be illegal, especially at Bristol. We're talking about the best short track on the Nascar circuit...and we get to enjoy it under the lights while also not interrupting a 12-hour college football bender on Saturday.

This Series makes for such a ridiculous handicapping. When we put 38 of these dopes on a high-banked half-mile, chaos will surely ensue. We just have to hope that our drivers can make it through in one piece because incidents will happen. Fingers crossed, gang.

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NASCAR Xfinity Series Food City 300 Picks

1.0u to win 1.0u - Josh Berry to finish inside the Top-5 (+100) (Bet $100 to win $100)

*Odds Available at DraftKings*

1.15u to win 1.0u - Josh Berry to finish better than AJ Allmendinger (-115, Draftkings)

*Odds Available at DraftKings*

Josh Berry is an absolute wheelman. I'm convinced that if you could throw this guy in a competitive Cup Series ride, he would win short-track races on Sundays. He's just that good.

If you're a loyal reader of ours, you may remember when we talked about heists a few weeks ago. Josh Berry would be our number one overall draft pick as a getaway driver. Easy choice and it doesn't even have to be a PPR league.

Our most comparable track to use in the Bristol dataset is Dover, even though Dover is double in size. The one-mile Delaware circuit is also high-banked concrete, meaning Bristol is basically the Thunderdome version of it.

NASCAR Xfinity Series Food City 300 Prediction

Berry is the very best at Dover. He finished second there in 2021 and won earlier this year just for good measure. He averaged 53.5 laps and led with 41.5 fast laps. Dominating stuff. The "Dinger," in comparison, averaged 4.5 fast laps, and failed to lead any. To be fair, Allmendinger did win the Bristol date last year in a chaotic finish while Berry suffered an incident and was scored in 35th.

Allmendinger does have better overall green flag speed in 2022, but Berry has rated better in each of the last three races. Our huge edge lies on pit road. In our pit data, Berry leads the field in overall pit efficiency. Allmendinger is scored all the way back in 12th, which is not a good look for the Series point leader. The disparity is just over 1.2 seconds per pit cycle, which is close to an eternity in Nascar time.

Berry will hold a pretty wheel and get the job done for us on Friday night. Our pockets inevitably will swell with coins. Let's keep the heater going!

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Article Author


Phil and Steve are lifelong buddies from the Philadelphia area. They specialize in all things motorsports and turned in a 131.3 unit profit in 2021.


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