NASCAR Prediction, Pick, Odds: Finding Value With Ty Gibbs at the Dead On Tools 250
NASCAR Prediction, Pick, Odds: Finding Value With Ty Gibbs at the Dead On Tools 250
Martinsville, Virginia. Population 13,821. This sleepy southern town will awaken from the deafening roars of 65,000 screaming NASCAR fans and 670 horsepower engines this weekend. It's time to whittle the playoff field down to four.
The track, aptly referred to as "The Paperclip," is a 0.526-mile short track with long straightaways and tight, flat corners. Hard braking zones and glowing, red-hot rotors are the soup de jour, and we've got the answer key for this exact scenario. Read on to find out my prediction, pick, and odds for NASCAR Xfinity Dead On Tools 250 race.
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NASCAR Xfinity Dead On Tools 250 Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
Date:Â Saturday, October 29
Time:Â 3:00 pm ET
Where to Watch:Â NBC, Peacock
Click Here for NASCAR Dead on Tools 250 Odds
NASCAR Pick: Dead On Tools 250
1.0u to win 1.2u - Ty Gibbs to finish ahead of Noah Gragson +120. (Bet $100 to win $220) -- Click here to bet at Draftkings, who have the best odds
This is the hardest thing I've had to do recently. And that includes my recent visit to the New Jersey Motor Vehicle building. And watching Tyler Reddick ruin our date with an ice-cold O'Doul's last weekend. So, you know that making this bet hurt me to my core. Steve is the smart guy in this duo, and if he says this is the move...this is the move. It's the only way.
We need to know the lay of the land before we attack these markets, so understanding the playoff implications is key...especially because this is the cut-off race before the championship next weekend at Phoenix.
Standings Heading into Martinsville:
- Noah Gragson - locked in via win at Homestead
- Josh Berry - locked in via win at Las Vegas
- Ty Gibbs +30 to cutline
- AJ Allmendinger +5 to cutline
- Justin Allgaier -5 to cutline
- Austin Hill -7 to cutline
- Sam Mayer -28 to cutline
- Brandon Jones -38 to cutline
NASCAR Xfinity Dead On Tools 250 Odds
| Driver | Odds to Win |
|---|---|
| Noah Gragson | +225 |
| Ty Gibbs | +300 |
| Justin Allgaier | +500 |
| Josh Berry | +700 |
| AJ Allmendinger | +1000 |
NASCAR Prediction: Dead On Tools 250
Noah. You stud. He sent the @speedwaysteve2 faithful home happy last Saturday night. I was taking in the victory at our local winery. There's nothing like watching a Nascar race surrounded by wine snobs. Apparently, the "Sommeliers" don't appreciate patrons yelling "BANG-BANG-GRAGSON GANG" in front of a packed dinner crowd. The pizza was good though. This track type demands a bet on Ty Gibbs. Something about this kid is very likable (sometimes). If we put some loot down on the Monster Energy Toyota, we're essentially buying a few hours of fandom on this guy. Sounds like a good deal, especially at a plus price.
Also, the bet makes sense based on race metrics on comparable tracks. We're using Phoenix, Martinsville, Richmond, and New Hampshire in this dataset...and the results make this an obvious play.
Amongst series regulars, Ty Gibbs has the second-best average running position (7.3) behind AJ Allmendinger, and the fifth-best average finish (12.0). He ranks first in average fast laps per race (31.2) while Gragson is second (15.0). Gibbs also dominates laps led per race (73.8). Gragson is again second (39.4) but it's not even close.
Noah Gragson is already locked into the Series finale at Phoenix. He literally doesn't even need to show up at the track for Saturday's contest. Given the similarities between these two tracks, it would not be out of the realm of possibility that they may be testing something for next week's race. This race means so much more to Gibbs, and for that reason, we pivot to the young gun this weekend.
Let's make the bet on Gibbs and enjoy this plus-money winner!