Champagne Saturday Picks 10/12: Keeneland
A full field has been assembled for Saturday’s sixth race at Keeneland, which will feature 12 2-year-olds going 6 1/2 furlongs on the main track. It’s an intriguing maiden race that kicks off the late Pick Five, and there are a bunch of different directions one can go.
The field boasts a mix of first-time starters and runners with some foundation to them. I’m going to focus on three of these entrants, one of whom looks to have a big chance at a nice price. Let’s take a look!
The Returning “Logicals”
#4 DAY DAYENU had plenty of trouble in her debut at Saratoga. She broke last in a nine-horse field going a tricky seven-furlong distance, and it wouldn’t have been shocking if the debuting daughter of Into Mischief spat the bit. However, she rallied to finish third in a race won by Alandra, who came back to run third in the Grade 1 Alcibiades earlier in the meet.
She’s got every right to win this, as does #12 FLATOYA, who also figures to be one of the favorites. This daughter of Flatter missed by a head in her debut at Ellis Park before flattening out going a mile last month at Churchill Downs. She returns to a sprint distance here, and the outside draw is a real plus. Jockey Corey Lanerie should be able to work out a trip of his choosing from there, and a leap forward coming back to what looks like her desired route would make her formidable.
The Live First-Time Starter
#10 SHACKADELIC doesn’t have a pedigree to write home about. The daughter of Shackleford and the Salt Lake mare Caseys Irish Pride fetched just $32,000 at auction last year. However, a glance at her work tab shows several impressive four-furlong workouts, including a bullet from the gate on September 25th.
Trainer Ben Colebrook has quietly become one of the better 2-year-old trainers on the circuit. Per The Daily Racing Form, he’s hit at a 19% clip with his last 78 runners and posted an astounding ROI of $6.40. The presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., is another plus, and the 10-1 morning line odds hit me as a considerable overlay.
How I’ll Play It
I’m going to box my three runners in exactas and lean a bit heavier on Shackadelic, which is where I think the value lies. Additionally, if that runner is 6-1 or higher, I’ll have a small win bet on her. If Shackadelic wins at that price, I need to be in a position where I make some money regardless of which horse finishes second.
2 units: Exacta box, 4,10,12
1 unit: Exacta key box, 10 with 4,12
2 units: Win, 10 (if 6-1 or higher)