The 2019 Breeders’ Cup is just one week away, with 188 horses pre-entered in the 14 races. The Breeders’ Cup has produced some of the greatest performances and most memorable moments in horse racing history, from American Pharoah and Zenyatta winning the Classic, to Arazi’s scintillating victory in the Juvenile.
Of the pre-entered horses, there are names like McKinzie, Omaha Beach, Mitole, Shancelot, Magical, Sistercharlie, and Anthony Van Dyck. They are some of the best horses in training in the world, and will be low odds in their respective races.
But how do favorites fare, and how often do longshots win? Favorites have historically won at a 31% rate at the Breeders’ Cup, with the Juvenile Fillies producing 51.4% winning favorites. The major races on the card, such as the Classic and Turf, have both been won 28.5% of the time by favorites. The Distaff is as high as 42.8%, and the Dirt Mile and Juvenile Turf as low as 16.6%.
But what about longshots? 33 horses have won the Breeders’ Cup at 25-1 odds or higher in the 35-year history of the event. They are as follows:
Classic – Arcangues ($269.20), Volponi ($89.00)
Turf - Lashkari ($108.80), Miss Alleged ($86.20), Better Talk Now ($57.80)
Distaff - Spain ($113.80, One Dreamer ($96.20), Adoration ($83.40), Pleasant Home ($64.50)
Mile - Court Vision ($131.60), Last Tycoon ($73.80), Opening Verse ($55.40), Domedriver ($54), Miesque’s Approval ($50.60)
Sprint - Sheikh Albadou ($54.60), Dancing in Silks ($52.60)
Turf Sprint – Desert Code ($75)
Marathon – Afleet Again ($85.20)
Dirt Mile - Dakota Phone ($77.40)
Filly and Mare Turf – Shared Account ($94), Perfect Shirl ($57.60)
Filly and Mare Sprint – Bar of Gold ($135.40), Shamrock Rose ($53.80)
Juvenile – Vale of York (63.20), Anees ($62.60), Wilko ($58.60), Action This Day ($55.60)
Juvenile Fillies - Take Charge Brandi ($125.40), Caressing ($96.00), Champagne Room ($69.20), Cash Run ($67), Ria Antonia ($66.60), Epitome ($62.80)
The Juvenile Fillies has the highest percentage of major longshots winning, but it is also the race that has the highest percentages of favorites. The Distaff, Juvenile, and Mile are also statistically more likely to produce a major upset winner.
No matter whether you are backing a favorite or a longshot, bet the 2019 Breeders’ Cup November 1 and 2 over at TVG.