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Sweet Lou's picks for the Hagyard Fayette Stakes at Keeneland today

Keeneland’s last weekend of its fall meet is highlighted by the $200,000 Grade 2 Hagyard Fayette Stakes for 3-year-olds and up over 1 1/8 miles on the dirt.

The field of 10 will go to gate for race 9 of the 10-race card with an approximate post time of 5:30 p.m. ET.

#2, Mr Freeze, Robby Albarado, 5-1

Mr Freeze will be making his 9th career start today (4-2-0) and fourth this year (1-1-0) after coming off a 1 1/2 length victory in the $150,000 Grade 3 Ack Ack Stakes at Churchill on Sept. 28 in his last. Today will mark his fifth graded stakes start (2-0-0). Last year, he won by a whopping eight lengths in the G3 West Virginia Derby on Aug. 4, 2018. Trainer Dale Romans likes the horse’s confidence right now and with Robby Albarado aboard, who was in the saddle for both graded wins, you can’t go wrong. The pick.

#3, Tom’s d’Etat, Joel Rosario, 2-1

The morning-line favorite will be making his 15th career start today (7-2-1) and sixth this year (1-1-1) after a fourth-place finish in the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 31 in his last. As a matter of fact, he has raced so good that in his last four starts he has posted triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures. All the notes suggest Tom’s d’Etat is the one to beat, so we are going to try and do it. Runner-up.

#8, Bal Harbour, Tyler Gaffalione, 7-2

Bal Harbour, trained by Todd Pletcher, has finished in the money in seven of his last eight starts (2-3-2) and has posted three straight runner-up finishes, including a second in the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes (see above) and two Grade 3 seconds in the Monmouth Cup Stakes and Iselin Stakes at Monmouth Park.  Gaffalione is having a great meet and is currently second (three behind Julian Leparoux) with 14 wins. Contender.

#7, Core Beliefs, Joe Talamo, 8-1

Core Beliefs is looking for his second win in four starts this year after a ¾ of a length winner over Silver Dust in the $400,000 G2 New Orleans Handicap at Fair Grounds on March 23. This will be his ninth straight graded stakes start, so his experience is deep as this will be his 12th career start (3-1-3). I’m a big fan of Joe Talamo so that bodes well in his favor. In the mix.

PICKS: 2-3-8-7

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By Lou Monaco


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