Champagne Picks 10/27: Churchill Downs Pt.II

Juvenile expert Andrew Champagne previews second of two stakes races on the program at Churchill Downs
Andrew Champagne
Sun, October 27, 11:04 AM

The male counterpart to the Rags to Riches Stakes is the Street Sense Stakes, which will be run one race later on Sunday’s card at Churchill Downs. The event drew a field of 11 2-year-olds that will go a one-turn, one-mile route for a $120,000 purse.

While I think the two favorites will be tough to beat, I also believe there are a few horses who could potentially clunk up for a piece of it underneath to spice up the exotics. With the field size what it is, those combinations could pay surprisingly well. Here’s how I see the Street Sense!

 

The Two Favorites

#2 TAP IT TO WIN’s last race was too bad to be true. He came in off of an electric win at Saratoga and was 3-1 in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, but was hard to handle and had nothing left late.

I’m tossing that race entirely, and I’m more than willing to give him another shot. His local work at Churchill on October 18th was fine, and the two-back effort jumps off the page. He has tactical speed but doesn’t need the lead to win, and I think that’s going to put him in a great spot given that several others in here appear to be one-dimensional front-runners.

Meanwhile, #4 SOUTH BEND is 2-for-2 and closed from way back in both of those starts. His recent work tab is very sharp, and there will certainly be plenty of speed signed on to set up for his preferred style. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s simply because I don’t think he’s beaten a whole lot to this point. Having said that, he could absolutely win this and record his third straight triumph.

 

The Big Prices

I’m going to look to the outside for some value. #10 SHOTSKI’s pedigree screams “turf,” but when that didn’t work out in his unveiling at Kentucky Downs, trainer Jeremiah O’Dwyer moved him to dirt at Laurel. The result was a four-length win, which indicates he may have been a dirt horse all along. His pedigree also says the distance won’t be a problem, and this barn tends to keep horses on the right track (26% with last-out winners, per The Daily Racing Form).

Meanwhile, I’ll be a bit surprised if #11 CARPE VICTORIAM is close to his 15-1 morning line price. He’s taken big steps forward in each of his three career starts, and even though it was at Indiana Grand, I like that he beat winners last time out. With such a long run down the backstretch, the outside post means jockey James Graham could have every opportunity to work out an ideal trip, and he’s another whose pedigree says he won’t be intimidated by this distance.

 

How I’ll Play It

I’ll play various exacta combinations that use the favorites on top a bit more heavily. In addition, if Carpe Victoriam is 10-1 or higher, I have to have a few bucks on him to win. I simply think there’s plenty to like there, and that such a price would be an overlay.

2 units: Exacta, 2,4 w/2,4,10,11

1 unit: Exacta, 10,11 w/2,4,10,11

2 units: Win, 11 (if 10-1 or higher)

 

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By Andrew Champagne

Andrew Champagne
AndrewChampagne
Andrew Champagne is a horse racing handicapper with a specialism in juveniles. One thing is for certain, Champagne gets the party started.
Mar 2020
Record
Wins
1
Losses
3
Push
0
ROI
-46.00%
0Betslip

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