Champagne Picks 01/12: Gulfstream Park

Sunday’s fourth race at Gulfstream Park is an intriguing one. It’s for 3-year-old fillies going six furlongs on the main track, and there are several first-time starters that may be well-meant. Between the lack of proven form and the large field of 10 runners, this could be a very good betting race. Let’s get to it!

The Beatable Morning Line Favorite

It’s anyone’s guess which of these runners will be favored, but #8 PRAIRIE WINGS is the morning line choice at odds of 3-1. She’s by Tapit and out of a Sadler’s Wells mare, so she’s bred to be a runner. However, she’s not bred to be a sprinter, and Kiaran McLaughlin’s horses tend to need a race or two to get going.

I’d like her much more going long, or in a turf race, or in a race after she had a start under her belt. In this spot, though, I think she’s very beatable, and her getting bet would mean better prices elsewhere on the tote board.

The Firsters I Prefer

#2 SENORA ROMA and #7 TOKEN, meanwhile, both appear well-meant. Both have flashy work tabs ahead of their unveilings, and there’s reason to believe they’re precocious. The former is trained by Larry Rivelli, whose first-time starters win at a high clip, while the latter’s dam and second dam both won stakes races as 2-year-olds.

It’s tough to get overenthusiastic about a single individual runner given this field’s overall lack of experience. However, of the horses debuting in this spot, I’m most interested in these two, and I hope we get bettable prices.

Ones to Use Underneath

#1 MOTIVATED SELLER is the 7/2 second choice on the morning line, and it wouldn’t shock me too much if she went off as the favorite. Chad Brown and Javier Castellano team up with this daughter of Into Mischief, so there’s plenty to like. However, the workouts are on the slow side, and the presence of Empire Maker on the bottom of her pedigree hints that she wants longer than she’ll get here.

I’ll also throw in #5 SHE THROWS HEAT, who is trained by Shug McGaughey. She sold for $200,000 back in 2018, and while she’s another that may do better with more distance, there are some pretty solid workouts on her tab. If you’re looking for a price to throw in, I think this is one to consider.

How I’ll Play It

I’ll box all four horses in exactas, but my primary ticket will use Senora Roma and Token on top. If one of them wins, I could be in line for a nice score.

2 units: Exactas, 2,7 w/1,2,5,7

1 unit: Exacta box, 1,2,5,7

By Andrew Champagne