Champagne Picks: Gulfstream Park
Sunday’s sixth race at Gulfstream Park is a fun one. It’s a maiden special weight event for 3-year-old fillies, and the seven-horse field includes a quintet of first-time starters (several of whom fetched big money at auctions).
This is the first leg of the Rainbow Six, and I think it’s a great betting race for a variety of reasons. Let’s take a closer look!
The Beatable Favorite
#7 FASHION BABE is 8/5 on the morning line and may go off shorter than that. She runs for powerhouse connections and hasn’t put forth a truly bad effort in four starts. Having said that, she’s also burned plenty of money in her last three outings, when she’s been favored and found ways to lose.
It’s entirely possible she’s found a group she can beat, but at her likely price, I don’t think there’s much value here. In addition, it’s tough to trust her given her recent history where she’s failed to get the job done. I’m looking elsewhere, and doing so opens this race up considerably.
The Hall of Famers
The enshrined duo of Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez teams up with the debuting #4 STARLIT DAYDREAM, and that one is my top pick. Her pedigree isn’t anything to write home about, which is what makes a pretty strong work tab all the more intriguing. She boasts a number of bullet drills ahead of her unveiling, ones that make her look like a real runner.
Starlit Daydream is 9/2 on the morning line. That seems like an overlay, but anything north of 3-1 would still provide considerable value. This trainer/jockey combination is too good to discount, especially with a horse working like this prior to her debut.
Others to Use
#5 SCONSET hammered for $900,000 back in 2018, and she’s got the pedigree to be any kind of runner. She’s by legendary sire Tapit and out of a mare by prominent broodmare sire Smart Strike, all of which points to her having ample potential. A bullet workout on January 18th can’t be ignored, although the Ben Colebrook barn doesn’t always have first-time starters fully-cranked.
I’ll also throw in the other runner with racing experience. That’s #2 BIRD MAP, who’s been working well ahead of a return off of a three-month layoff. She tired in the slop last time out, but her debut wasn’t bad and she’s got a pedigree that indicates she’ll improve as she gets older. Perhaps a win is a bit too much to ask, but I think she outruns her 12-1 odds and has a big chance to hit the board.
How I’ll Play It
I’m keying Starlit Daydream in exactas, and I’ll also have some win money on her if she’s at what I deem to be an appropriate price.
(2u) Exacta key box: 4 with 2,5,7
(2u) Win: 4 (if 3-1 or higher)