Kentucky Derby Racing Picks: Kentucky Derby Card At Churchill Downs

TVG racing expert Emily Shields is back this week with picks for Saturday's races at Churchill Downs including the Kentucky Derby
Emily Shields
Thu, September 3, 3:41 PM

The 2020 Kentucky Derby is finally here after being delayed from the first Saturday in May to the first Saturday in September, September 5. The 1 ¼-mile race at Churchill Downs is for three-year-olds with a purse of $3 million and a chance to wear the roses and write their name in history.

Here are some betting selections for the stakes races on the September 5 card.

Race 8: $500,000 American Turf Stakes (G2) - Click here to bet with TVG

#8 Fancy Liquor (9-2) is the biggest price of the top three favorites, but if not for a neck loss in Grade 3 company at Keeneland last out he would have been riding a two-race win streak. He rebounded to win over a mile at Indiana Grand last out for trainer Mike Maker, and has never been worse than third. He was a winner over this turf course in June. #5 Smooth Like Straight (8-5) is coming off a Grade 3 win at Del Mar for trainer Michael McCarthy, and won here in May when shipping in as he is doing now.

Race 9: $500,000 Pat Day Mile (G2) - Click here to bet with TVG

#1 Cezzane (3-1) was considered a Kentucky Derby prospect briefly, but when he lost the Shared Belief Stakes last out – finishing last, but only beaten a length and a half – he dropped out of contention for that race. Trainer Bob Baffert has this $3.65 million son of Curlin ready to roll off a bullet work August 30. #9 Rushie (4-1) was considered a Kentucky Derby starter until just a few days ago. He was third in both the Blue Grass (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1) and gets some class relief here. #4 Tap It to Win (4-1) was fifth in the Belmont Stakes (G1) after leading most of the way, and was Grade 1 placed last out.

Race 10: $200,000 Iroquois Stakes (G3) - Click here to bet with TVG

Every one of the 11 juveniles in this race are winners, so value must be found among a group of precocious types. #7 Pico d’Oro (5-1) broke his maiden in stakes company last out at Ellis Park, and is bred to appreciate the step up in trip.

Race 11: $500,000 Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2) - Click here to bet with TVG

#3 Juliet Foxtrot (5-1) has won over this track and was Grade 1 placed in three of her last four starts. She has been knocking on the door for a big win for trainer Brad Cox. #4 Newspaperofrecord (4-5) is an obvious choice and will be a big favorite, but she did lose here last year when heavily favored and there is value elsewhere.

Race 12: $500,000 Derby City Distaff (G1) - Click here to bet with TVG

#8 Serengeti Empress (9-5) won the Kentucky Oaks (G1) here last year, but has been impressive sprinting of late with a win in the Grade 1 Ballerina August 8. #10 Ce Ce (3-1) cuts back in distance after going two turns in her last four starts, but she was an impressive allowance winner sprinting at Santa Anita in February.

Longshot Play: #4 Bells the One (10-1) is a stakes winner over the track, and was Grade 1 placed at Keeneland last out.

Race 13: $1 million Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1) - Click here to bet with TVG

Trainer Chad Brown has a trio of aces in here with #3 Rockemperor (7-2), #4 Digital Age (6-1), and #8 Sacred Life (6-1). They are all imposing figures that could each win, but don’t sleep on #9 Somelikeithotbrown (8-1) for trainer Mike Maker. He is coming off the best race of his life in a Grade 2 win at Saratoga.

Race 14: $3 million Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) - Click here to bet with TVG

While all roads seem to lead through #17 Tiz the Law (3-5), #16 Honor A. P. (5-1) has been pointing specifically for this race all year, and trainer John Shirreffs knows how to get a horse to peak at the right time. He has looked very good galloping over the Churchill surface. #18 Authentic (8-1) will be difficult to catch on the front end and has only lost once in his career.

Longshot Play: #4 Storm the Court (50-1) was a 45-1 surprise when he took the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last year, and though he doesn’t win often, he has been running well this year with two strong speed figures in his last two starts.

To bet on the card at Churchill Downs and claim your $300 risk-free bet with TVG simply:

1 - Open a TVG account HERE

2 - Register using code RISKFREE1 and make a deposit

3 - Place a single horse win bet and if it loses they’ll refund you up to $300

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