Saturday's Racing Predictions: Breeders' Cup Picks

TVG's Emily Shields previews the action at Keeneland on Saturday for the Breeders Cup
Emily Shields
Sat, November 7, 4:58 AM EST

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Race 4 - $1 million Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (G1)

All eyes will be on #2 Gamine (7-5) as the dual Grade 1 winner breaks towards the inside and will try to run this group off their feet. There should be plenty of early speed with horses like #7 Serengeti Empress (3-1) and #6 Venetian Harbor (8-1) in the mix; any of these three game stars could win it. Longshot Play: #1 Speech (6-1) will sit off the pace and make a run, and is already a Grade 1 winner on this racetrack.

Race 5 - $1 million Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1)

A tough contest here with several having a big shot. #1 Big Runnuer (12-1) has won three in a row including a pair of stakes at Santa Anita. Only disqualification has stopped #3 Imprimis (4-1) this year. The pick is #7 Leinster (4-1) who has won three of four on the track and has won his last two, both here.

Race 6 - $1 million Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1)

Another wide-open event where a horse like #1 Art Collector (6-1), who was a favorite for the Kentucky Derby and a major prep winner over this course is such high odds on the morning line. #4 War of Will (10-1) is a Grade 1 winner on both dirt (Preakness Stakes) and turf (Maker’s Mark Mile here in July), and is somehow 10-1 morning line despite earning $1.8 million and training well for Mark Casse. #2 Sharp Samurai (15-1) switches to the main track for just the second time in two years; a major stakes horse on grass, he was second in the Pacific Classic on dirt.

Race 7 - $2 million Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1)

Trainer Chad Brown has a whopping four horses in here, including #6 Rushing Fall (5-2) who has won five of six on this course, and is already a Breeders’ Cup winner. #14 Cayenne Pepper (8-1) has been running well all year and has been first or second in seven of eight lifetime starts. #8 Mucho Unusual (30-1) is dangerous at that price if she gets loose on the lead. #1 Starship Jubilee (10-1) was a Grade 1 winner over males last out, and has won twice at the distance.

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Race 8 - $2 million Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1)

#10 Yaupon (7-2) is unbeaten in four career starts, but has to prove he’s the real deal as he steps up into Grade 1 company. #2 C Z Rocket (7-2) is on a five-race win streak including a pair of Grade 2 races since changing barns. #6 Frank’s Rockette (10-1) could have run against fillies but prefers the shorter sprints and is coming off a huge pair of wins. Longshot Play: #3 Collusion Illusion has won five of seven lifetime, was a grade 1 winner two back, and as improved with every race of his career.

Race 9 - $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1)

#2 Kameko (6-1) is one of several foreign invaders with decent odds who are all capable of winning this. #1 Circus Maximus was fourth in this race last year, and was a Group 1 winner at Royal Ascot over the summer. If you can get these odds on #12 Uni (5-1), do it – she is the defending champion and a Grade 1 winner on the track. Longshot Play: #3 Lope Y Fernandez (30-1) who will appreciate the trip and has had bad luck all year.

Race 10 – $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1)

Best Bet of the Day: #10 Monomoy Girl (8-5) has crossed the finish line first in 13 of 14 races, won this race in 2018, is a champion, and is a Grade 1 winner over the course. Can she beat #5 Swiss Skydiver (2-1), who nearly went in the Classic? This filly won the Preakness Stakes over Kentucky Derby winner Authentic last out. #9 Ollie’s Candy (10-1) really deserves one of these; se has been top three in 13 of 15 career saces.

Race 11 – $4 million Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1)

#2 Magical (5-2) will attempt to be the fifth filly or mare to win this race; she has won two different Group 1 races over males this year and was second in this race in 2018.

Race 12 - $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1)

A truly special edition of this 1 ¼-mile race, where trainer Bob Baffert has three horses drawn side by side, including #8 Improbable (5-2), Derby winner #9 Authentic (6-1), and #10 Maximum Security (7-2). All three are training very well, and all three have huge shots to win. But #2 Tiz the Law (3-1) is not a horse to dismiss off a single loss this year; he was the leading Horse of the Year contender until he ran second in the Derby, then skipped the Preakness for this.

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