Monday's Horse Racing Picks: Delta Downs Late Pick Four
Monday's Horse Racing Picks: Delta Downs Late Pick Four
We’ll head to Delta Downs to take a look at Monday’s late Pick Four sequence. It starts in the sixth of nine races on the program, and I’ll attack it with a $32 ticket. Here’s how I’ve constructed it.
RACE #6: I’m taking a stand right away in this $5,000 claiming event. #7 ALYS EPISODE is the 5/2 morning line favorite, but I’m far from sold. Her only win came in a turf sprint at Evangeline Downs last summer, and she tired to third after setting a moderate pace at this level last time out.
I’m going four-deep without using her. #2 WILL B LATE is my tepid top pick, simply because she’s one of the few runners that has shown an ability to pass others. There’s a fair amount of early speed in here, and the faster they go in the first stages of the race, the better this one’s chances figure to be.
#1 HOLY SONG, #5 SIBERIANPRODUCTION, and #8 ENOUGH HEART are on my ticket as well. Going four-deep should allow me to move on if Alys Episode is as vulnerable as I think she is, and if that scenario unfolds, plenty of tickets will likely go up in smoke.
RACE #7: Eight maiden claimers will go to the gate for this one, and unlike the first leg, I think the favorite here is pretty legitimate. I’m using her, and she’s my top pick, but there’s another I think you need to use as well.
#2 SWANEE BEACH cuts back to seven furlongs after finishing fourth going a mile and a sixteenth last time out. She made a middle move that day going a distance that was likely too far for her. She’s run well going this type of distance this meet, and it’s encouraging to see Diego Saenz ride back when he likely had some options.
I’ll also use #6 CABO SUNSET, a runner that’s hit the board in each of her last three starts. I usually don’t like horses that seem to enjoy running second or third, but she’s shown an ability to pass horses, and she’s run into a few next-out winners of late.
RACE #8: Nine $5,000 claimers will go five furlongs in this event, and I think this is far more wide-open than the morning line would suggest. #2 ETERNAL FORCE may very well go favored, and I’m using him, but I can’t see him being 2-1 (especially since he hasn’t won since 2018).
I prefer another runner who recently switched barns. #3 ICE PEAK has run well for this tag against what seem like better horses at Fair Grounds. He ran third in back-to-back starts, ships in, and gets top local rider Gerard Melancon. I think he’ll be prominent early and that he has a chance to get brave at a bit of a price.
I’ll also use #5 CURTIN’S UP and #8 SHANGHAI MIKE. Shanghai Mike was 8/5 against a similar group last time out and ran a decent second. He may have needed that race off a five-month break, and my guess is he gets bet down pretty significantly from his 6-1 morning line price.
RACE #9: We’ll finish things off with a one-mile event that drew a full field. Many of these runners have been struggling at this level for quite a while, and I’m only going two-deep for some well-defined reasons.
#5 LITTLE TOE may go favored. He’s picked up minor awards against similar groups for quite a while, and I’m not crazy about his lack of a recent win. However, he sure looks like the main early speed, and if he doesn’t capitalize on what seems like a dream setup here, he may never win.
I’ll also use a “stranger danger” horse in the form of #4 ARCHIE. He’s won 11 of 44 career starts but has hit a dry patch over the past year in Texas. This is his first start on the Louisiana circuit for trainer Karl Broberg, who has enlisted Tim Thornton to ride. I think a change of scenery could wake him up, and it’s not like he’s facing a field of world-beaters in his Delta Downs debut.
THE TICKET
R6: 1,2,5,8
R7: 2,6
R8: 2,3,5,8
R9: 4,5
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