Tuesday Free Horse Racing Picks: Delta Downs Late Pick Four | March 9 2021
We went 3-for-4 Monday at Delta Downs, and after that “close, but no cigar” effort, I’m back for another swing at Tuesday’s late Pick Four. My ticket is $20, and I’m taking an interesting approach as far as ticket structure is concerned. Here’s how I’ll play it.
The first three races will each feature runners that are likely to take tons of betting money. In order for this to pay anything, at least one of those horses needs to not win.
I’m not taking such a stance in the opening leg of the sequence, as #7 STEPHEN’S ANSWER looks very imposing on the drop in class for Robertino Diodoro. He was 10-1 in a $100,000 stakes race two back and is now running for a $10,000 claiming tag. The shallower waters alone figure to move him way up. Add in that this he’s had legitimate, pace-related excuses in each of his last two outings against far better horses, and I simply can’t go against him.
This is where I’ll “zig” compared to the general public’s “zag.” Karl Broberg has #1 OUTAMINE and #1A REDDY TO BET, but I’m not sold on either part of the entry. One of these runners is likely to scratch (since Tim Thornton is listed to ride both), Outamine may be a “horse for course” at Fair Grounds, and Reddy to Bet is 1-for-15 at Delta.
I’m going four-deep in hopes of beating the favorite. #8 ICE CRUSH is my top pick, and I’m drawing a line through the last-out effort. It was simply too poor to be true, and his recent form looks far better if that race is ignored. His three-back win going a mile was pretty good, and he’s shown an ability to do his best running late, which should help him.
#2 D TWO, #4 MINE INSPECTOR, and #6 SPENDAHOLIC are on my ticket as well. Whichever Broberg runner lines up will be a heavy favorite, and if that chalk loses, a lot of tickets go up in smoke. I’m hoping that going four-deep without that one gives me a chance to stand out and maximize my return.
This race, however, is another with a likely favorite I can’t go against. #8 CENTSMYBABYLEFTME looks awfully tough in here given a significant class drop and a return to a surface he clearly loves. Every one of his top-three finishes has come at Delta Downs, and he has several 2019 and 2020 races that would thump this group.
Unlike in the eighth race, I think Karl Broberg genuinely has the goods here. This is the track this runner loves, and I think he’ll be prominent from the jump. If he gets comfortable, it certainly seems like the race will be for second money.
Singling twice allows me to spread here, and that’s a good thing, because I have no idea how to decipher the Tuesday finale. #10 LAUGHING LATINOS ran well last time out and will almost certainly be favored, but he draws terrible in this two-turn event, and the possibility for a bounce is certainly there given that last-out effort represented a substantial improvement.
I’m hitting the “ALL” button here and hoping for a price. There are a few that look reasonably live. #7 OBSTRUCTED VIEW probably bounced last time off of two so-so performances two and three back, and #11 WILDFIRE STORM has a chance if he draws in (though he’s another that will need to combat a terrible draw). I can’t endorse either with any degree of confidence, and that rings true of every runner in here. If I’m live, I’ll sit back, relax, and root for chaos.
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Andrew Champagne is a horse racing handicapper with a specialism in juveniles. One thing is for certain, Champagne gets the party started.