We’ll head back to Delta Downs for Tuesday’s late Pick Four, which starts in the seventh of 10 races on the Tuesday program. I’ll look to attack it with a $24 ticket, and here’s how I’ve constructed my play.
Right off the bat, I’m taking a stand against a 7/5 morning line favorite. #8 CRIDER CHASE is 0-for-14, and her trainer is hitting at just a 2% clip this meet. Given her likely price, I much prefer others, and I’m going three-deep.
#3 SOUVENIR CHANNEL ran a good second last time out at this level and route. She was 34-1 that day, and while we certainly won’t get anything close to that price, a repeat of that effort could give her some value in a race with what I feel is a beatable favorite.
In addition to that one, I’ll also use #2 SPEAK BRILEY and #7 PARTY WITH KASSIDY as well. Both of these runners figure to take some play, but nothing close to that of Crider Chase, and if that chalk loses, many tickets will go up in smoke.
Older fillies and mares will head to the gate for this $5,000 claiming event. This race hit me as a pretty wide-open affair, and I’m using four of the nine runners that have been entered.
#6 PRUD AS PUNCH is the 2-1 morning line favorite, and I’m using her off of a decent performance last time out. However, I prefer #2 SWANEE BEACH, who broke through with a runaway score last time out. She tries winners for the first time, but it’s not like there are any monsters in here and maybe she’s figuring things out early in her 4-year-old season.
#4 AUNT SUNSHINE and #9 CLOCKED IN TYME are on my ticket as well. The former ships in from Oaklawn Park and has been running against better horses, while the latter has shown an ability to pass horses late and would benefit from a pace meltdown.
This optional claiming event serves as the Tuesday feature, and it houses my best bet of the sequence. Whichever half of the Karl Broberg-trained entry runs will almost certainly be a heavy favorite, and I don’t think it’s fruitful to go against that barn in this spot.
#1 MADELYN’S WILD MAX has won three in a row, all at this route of ground, while #1A REACH THE CIRCLE was third to his stablemate last time out to snap a three-race win streak of his own. Both are listed as being ridden by Tim Thornton, but whichever horse runs will be very, very tough.
We’ll finish things off with a one-mile race for state-bred fillies and mares. If we get here, we’ll be live to four of these runners.
#10 CHARMING FLINT is an interesting case. She won impressively first time out but has not run since July, when she was fourth going long on the turf at Louisiana Downs. The debut win tells me she runs well fresh, and I think she’s got a shot if she’s ready to run.
I’m also using #2 ULTIMATE CHALLENGE, #5 BATTY, and #9 MISSGREELEY’SSONG. Missgreeley’ssong is the 2-1 morning line favorite, but I think she drifts up a bit. This isn’t an easy race to handicap, and I sincerely hope I’ve gone deep enough.
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