My usual soft budget for Pick Four tickets is $40, so at first glance, the play I’ve cooked up for Tuesday’s late sequence at Delta Downs may seem excessive. However, while it starts at $48, it includes two also-eligibles that won’t run unless there’s a scratch, so this is likely to come down. Here’s how I’ve put together my ticket, which you can play ahead of the seventh of 10 races on the program.
Right off the bat, I’m going against a morning line favorite. #10 HERE COMES LINDA is 5/2, but I’m not sold. She’s had multiple tries at this level and route, and with the exception of a strong second in her debut last year, she hasn’t been close.
I’m four-deep without her, and if #11 DEEZEE DIAL draws in, I need to use her. She showed early zip last time out in her first start since late-2017 (that’s not a typo). I think she certainly needed that race, and that she should improve second off the bench. Those 10-1 morning line odds are attractive, and she hits me as a must-use.
#2 AUDACIOUS GIRL, #6 SOCIAL GALAXY, and #7 MAGIC APRIORITY are on my ticket as well. Social Galaxy hits me as the most likely winner. She’s been running against better horses, and this is her first start for a tag. This barn has clicked at a 19% clip this meet, and I think she’ll move forward second off of a freshening.
This claiming event is another that’s attracted an overflow field, and for the second race in a row, I need to use an also-eligible if it runs. #11 CAJUN CASH drops in class, and while he runs for an ice-cold barn, he’s put forth some solid efforts this meet, including a third-place finish two back. If he channels that form, I think he’s got a shot.
#3 TWO MIKES N DOC G will likely go favored, and I guess that makes sense. He hasn’t run in a while but has been competitive in each of his last five starts since coming back to the races. Most of those have likely come against higher-quality opposition, so I need to include him.
I’ll also use #1 WHY GOD and #5 NATEALYZE. The former comes back to the right level and retains Tim Thornton for leading trainer Karl Broberg, while the latter has won at this meet and would benefit from a pace meltdown (which seems possible).
This optional claiming event serves as the Tuesday feature, and it’s attracted eight speedy horses to go five furlongs.
I’m going two-deep, and while I’m using 2-1 morning line choice #3 TAPIZARS SECRET, I prefer #4 MR. PRODUCTION. That one has won four of five starts since being claimed by Broberg in November, and 9/2 seems like a real overlay. Tapizars Secret does drop in class and won at this route earlier in the meet, but I think there’s a chance he may be past his peak.
Maiden claimers will take us home, and I’m finishing this off by going three-deep in the Tuesday finale.
#10 SMOKY TOPAZ is the 9/5 favorite, and he looks formidable. He takes a significant drop in class in his local debut, and this field turned up weak even for the level. Perhaps the pedigree says turf, but I think he may well just be too classy for this bunch.
I’m also using two others. #4 DAVID’S GRACE took a big step forward when dropped to this level last time out, and #7 NO QUARTER goes two turns at Delta for the first time, which could wake him up and get him over the hump.
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