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Andrew Champagne previews is back for Tuesday's meet at Delta Downs and has the Late Pick Four covered for us.
ANALYSIS

My usual soft budget for Pick Four tickets is $40, so at first glance, the play I’ve cooked up for Tuesday’s late sequence at Delta Downs may seem excessive. However, while it starts at $48, it includes two also-eligibles that won’t run unless there’s a scratch, so this is likely to come down. Here’s how I’ve put together my ticket, which you can play ahead of the seventh of 10 races on the program.

RACE #7:

Right off the bat, I’m going against a morning line favorite. #10 HERE COMES LINDA is 5/2, but I’m not sold. She’s had multiple tries at this level and route, and with the exception of a strong second in her debut last year, she hasn’t been close.

I’m four-deep without her, and if #11 DEEZEE DIAL draws in, I need to use her. She showed early zip last time out in her first start since late-2017 (that’s not a typo). I think she certainly needed that race, and that she should improve second off the bench. Those 10-1 morning line odds are attractive, and she hits me as a must-use.

#2 AUDACIOUS GIRL, #6 SOCIAL GALAXY, and #7 MAGIC APRIORITY are on my ticket as well. Social Galaxy hits me as the most likely winner. She’s been running against better horses, and this is her first start for a tag. This barn has clicked at a 19% clip this meet, and I think she’ll move forward second off of a freshening.

RACE #8:

This claiming event is another that’s attracted an overflow field, and for the second race in a row, I need to use an also-eligible if it runs. #11 CAJUN CASH drops in class, and while he runs for an ice-cold barn, he’s put forth some solid efforts this meet, including a third-place finish two back. If he channels that form, I think he’s got a shot.

#3 TWO MIKES N DOC G will likely go favored, and I guess that makes sense. He hasn’t run in a while but has been competitive in each of his last five starts since coming back to the races. Most of those have likely come against higher-quality opposition, so I need to include him.

I’ll also use #1 WHY GOD and #5 NATEALYZE. The former comes back to the right level and retains Tim Thornton for leading trainer Karl Broberg, while the latter has won at this meet and would benefit from a pace meltdown (which seems possible).

RACE #9:

This optional claiming event serves as the Tuesday feature, and it’s attracted eight speedy horses to go five furlongs.

I’m going two-deep, and while I’m using 2-1 morning line choice #3 TAPIZARS SECRET, I prefer #4 MR. PRODUCTION. That one has won four of five starts since being claimed by Broberg in November, and 9/2 seems like a real overlay. Tapizars Secret does drop in class and won at this route earlier in the meet, but I think there’s a chance he may be past his peak.

RACE #10:

Maiden claimers will take us home, and I’m finishing this off by going three-deep in the Tuesday finale.

#10 SMOKY TOPAZ is the 9/5 favorite, and he looks formidable. He takes a significant drop in class in his local debut, and this field turned up weak even for the level. Perhaps the pedigree says turf, but I think he may well just be too classy for this bunch.

I’m also using two others. #4 DAVID’S GRACE took a big step forward when dropped to this level last time out, and #7 NO QUARTER goes two turns at Delta for the first time, which could wake him up and get him over the hump.

THE TICKET

R7: 2,6,7,11

R8: 1,3,5,11

R9: 3,4

R10: 4,7,10

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Andrew Champagne is a horse racing handicapper with a specialism in juveniles. One thing is for certain, Champagne gets the party started.

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