2021 Preakness Stakes Odds & Predictions: Picks From Expert Who Nailed Derby Exacta

Andrew Champagne lined our pockets when crushing the Derby day program, here's his predictions for the Preakness
Andrew Champagne
Thu, May 13, 8:39 AM EDT

2021 Preakness Stakes Odds, Betting Preview & Predictions

Looking for Preakness Stakes predictions from the expert that nailed the exacta in the Kentucky Derby.. well you’ve come to the right place! Our man Andrew Champagne previews Saturday’s big race and analyzes the best bets to make in the race.

Read Andrew Champagne’s Preakness Stakes predictions below. 

2021 Preakness Stakes Predictions

It’s Preakness week, and the entire horse racing community desperately needs a drink.

In case you’ve been under a rock, here’s what’s happened the past few days: Medina Spirit, who lined my pockets (and those who read my OddsChecker wagering strategies and bet accordingly) when he won the Kentucky Derby, tested positive for a banned substance. We’re awaiting the results of a split sample, and should that sample come back positive, he’ll be disqualified.

One of many problems, of course, is that we don’t have that result yet. Medina Spirit, for now, has a chance to capture the second leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown this Saturday at Pimlico Race Course in Maryland. He’ll face nine rivals, including a talented stablemate from the Bob Baffert barn. Let’s take a look at the race make some Preakness Stakes predictions!

BETTING AGAINST THE DERBY WINNER?

#3 MEDINA SPIRIT owes me nothing. The Medina Spirit-Mandaloun exacta helped me crush the Derby Day program, and he comes into the Preakness off of, by far, the best last-out effort of any horse in this field.

Unfortunately, he won’t be anywhere near the 12-1 he was at Churchill Downs in this race. He’s the 9/5 morning line choice, and that’s just too short for me to make him my primary Preakness Stakes pick or prediction. Given the short turnaround, the controversy surrounding his barn, and the huge improvement last time out, I think there’s a fairly good chance Medina Spirit regresses here. That regression may still be enough to allow him to hit the board, but if he wins, he’ll beat me doing it.

THE OTHER BAFFERT

#10 CONCERT TOUR was considered a Kentucky Derby favorite after an impressive score in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. All he had to do was run well in the Arkansas Derby…and instead, he ran a disappointing third as the 1/5 favorite, an effort that prompted Baffert to keep this son of Derby winner Street Sense on the sidelines for two extra weeks.

Concert Tour has worked well at Churchill Downs ahead of this race, and the far outside post should be a plus for him. He’s got the tactical speed to clear as much of this field as Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith wants to, and it’s tough to bet against an ultra-talented horse that looks likely to get a great trip. He’s the second choice on the morning line, but he hits me as the most likely winner.

THE WISE GUY HORSE

#5 MIDNIGHT BOURBON ran a sneaky race two weeks ago. He had shown plenty of early speed in Derby prep races at Fair Grounds, but he was rated pretty far back in the Run for the Roses and raced wide on both turns. Despite the less-than-ideal trip, though, he was a solid sixth, and his connections think highly enough of him to wheel him back on two weeks’ rest to try again.

Irad Ortiz, Jr., replaces Mike Smith in the irons, and one has to assume more aggressive early handling is in the cards. Improvement certainly makes him a factor, and if you don’t like either Baffert trainee (or just don’t want to bet them, for obvious reasons), this isn’t a bad spot to land.

Preakness Stakes Picks: THE PLAY

I’m leaning on Concert Tour here. I’ll key him in exactas on top of Medina Spirit and Midnight Bourbon, play an additional, smaller box with just Midnight Bourbon, and allot some win money if he’s at his 5/2 morning line price.

5 units: Win, 10 (if 5/2 or higher)

3 units: Exacta, 10 w/3,5

2 units: Exacta box, 5,10

Preakness Stakes Morning Line Odds

After reading Andrew’s analysis on the race, it’s time to place your wagers. First up though, you’ll find the Preakness morning line odds below. We’re hoping Concert Tour holds on to his 5/2 price and follow Andrew Champagne’s primary Preakness Stakes prediction.

Post Position Horse Preakness Morning Line Odds Trainer Jockey
1 Ram 30/1 D Wayne Lukas Ricardo Santana Jr
2 Keepmeinmind 15/1 Robertino Diodoro David Cohen
3 Medina Spirit 9/5 Bob Baffert John Velasquez
4 Crowded Trade 10/1 Chad Brown Javier Castellano
5 Midnight Bourbon 5/1 Steve Asmussen Irad Ortiz Jr
6 Rombauer 12/1 Michael McCarthy Flavian Prat
7 France Go De Ina 20/1 Hideki Mori Joel Rosario
8 Unbridled Honor 15/1 Todd Pletcher Luis Saez
9 Risk Taking 15/1 Chad Brown Jose Ortiz
10 Concert Tour 5/2 Bob Baffert Mike Smith

Wagering: How To Bet The Preakness Stakes

Ok, you’ve got Andrew Champagne’s Preakness Stakes prediction, you’ve got the odds, now it’s time to place the bet. We recommend betting with TVG, here’s how to sign up:

1. Click the exclusive OddsChecker link below to sign up to TVG

2. You'll now be taken to the registration page to populate your details

3. On this page enter the OddsChecker exclusive TVG promo code “RISKFREE300”

4. Once you’ve entered the TVG promo code you’ll need to deposit – remember with the promo code you get a $300 Risk-Free bet, so we recommend depositing between $100 to $300 to get the most out of the promo code.

5. Place your wager up to $300, if it loses, you'll get your money back! 

It’s that simple. Sign up now. 

Andrew Champagne
AndrewChampagne
Andrew Champagne is a horse racing handicapper with a specialism in juveniles. One thing is for certain, Champagne gets the party started.
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