It’s Memorial Day in the United States, and my travels will take me to a track that’s put together one of its biggest days of the year. Lone Star Park will run an 11-race program Monday, and the late Pick Four includes a quartet of stakes races. I’ll look to extract value from a short-priced favorite with a $16 ticket, and here’s how I’ve constructed it.
Lone Star Park Picks: Monday's Free Horse Racing Predictions
RACE #8: We kick things off with the Chamberlain Bridge Stakes for older turf sprinters. Of the eight horses in this field, I think four stand a chance to win it, and my top pick is the biggest price.
#2 SHARE THE UPSIDE is 10-1 on the morning line, but that hits me as incorrect. I think he’ll be several points shorter shorter, and that as a result, others that are very short prices will drift up a bit. This is an honest gelding who went 2-for-2 over this turf course last summer and has won four of five career turf starts. His lone misfire on the grass came three back in a loaded stakes race at Sam Houston that featured several next-out winners, and I think there’s a lot to like. If you’re playing a grid-inspired ticket, I’d certainly have this one as an “A.”
#3 ARCHIDUST, #6 TEXAS WEDGE, and #7 CHAOS THEORY are on my ticket as well. Chaos Theory intrigues me the most of the bunch. He cuts back to five furlongs, and all six of his career victories have come going either five or 5 1/2 panels. Six furlongs may be just a touch too far for him, and when conditioner Bob Hess Jr. ships around the country, he doesn’t do so for frequent flyer miles.
RACE #9: My first of several stands comes here, in the Texas Derby for 3-year-olds. Simply put, time has not been kind to the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. #10 SUPER STOCK won that race, #9 GET HER NUMBER ran fourth, and those coming out of that race have not run well. I’m tossing both runners and going four-deep in search of prices.
#8 DREAMER’S DISEASE is 12-1 on the morning line, but I think there’s reason to be excited. He pressed a very, very fast pace in the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard, and that was his first effort since December. He gets Lasix for the first time in this race, he ran a credible sixth in last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and if he gets his preferred trip, I think he could get brave at boxcar odds.
I’ll also use #1 SCARRED, #4 MR. WIRELESS, and #5 WARRANT. Warrant is probably going to be the “wise guy” horse in here. He ran a good second in a similar stakes race at Oaklawn earlier this month, and that day’s winner has since come back to prevail again. Joel Rosario sees fit to ride for Brad Cox, and these connections certainly merit respect.
RACE #10: Much has been made of ticket construction on horse racing Twitter of late (if you haven’t seen the “debate,” don’t bother looking; your holiday is too short for that kind of drama). As I’ve mentioned, my goal here is to extract value from a horse that may be a very short price, and the Ouija Board Distaff is where that short price resides.
#1 LAURA’S LIGHT has established herself as one of California’s best female turf horses. It’s not the sharpest group, to be sure, but she won a stakes race as a 2-year-old and added a trio of graded scores at three. She exits the first win of her 2021 campaign, and she certainly looks like the main early speed here. Given the likely race shape and the presence of top speed rider Florent Geroux, I’m singling this one and thinking she’ll be very tough to catch.
RACE #11: We’ll finish things off with the Grade 3 Steve Sexton Mile, and I’ll try to beat the likely favorite in the Memorial Day nightcap. #8 C Z ROCKET has blossomed into one of the country’s best sprinters since being claimed by Peter Miller last spring, but I have my doubts about if he can go two turns. At his likely price, he’s a bet-against for me, especially against what seems like a solid field.
#3 BY MY STANDARDS is my top pick. Take out his races against Grade 1 competition, and his record looks far, far more impressive. His return in last month’s Oaklawn Mile was very good, as he ran down a talented horse in Rushie to record his seventh win in 15 career outings. He’s proven around two turns, and I’m expecting a step forward second off the bench for a sharp barn.
I’ll also use #1 SILVER PROSPECTOR. This one strikes me as a very difficult horse to ride, but he’s done his best work with Ricardo Santana, Jr., in the irons. In fact, they’ve won two graded stakes races together, and this 4-year-old has never been close to winning with any other jockey aboard. Santana lands here for Steve Asmussen, and this one has back form that’s absolutely good enough to put him right there at a bit of a price.
Lone Star Picks: THE TICKET