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Soccer expert Graham Ruthven previews the first EURO 2020 semi-final between Italy and Spain

Italy vs. Spain Prediction: EURO 2020 Semi Final Odds & Picks

And then there were only four. Italy and Spain will clash in the semi finals of Euro 2020 on Tuesday with both sides aiming to make history by going all the way. This promises to be one of the most compelling matches of the tournament so far, such is the quality of the two teams that will take to the Wembley pitch.

For many, Italy are tournament favorites having shone in almost every match they have played so far. Roberto Mancini’s men dismissed Belgium in the quarter finals, but Spain have the technical ability to hold them at arm’s length through their use of the ball. Which way will this one go? Here my Italy v Spain predictions.

Italy vs. Spain Prediction

When: Tuesday July 6

Where: Wembley, UK

Time: 3pm ET

View odds for the game here.

Mancini’s brand of soccer has caught the eye at Euro 2020 as Italy have blown away opponents through their high press and concise use of possession. While the Azzurri struggled past Austria in the round of 16, they found top form again to see off Belgium in the quarter finals.

However, that victory came at a cost, with Leonardo Spinazzola ruled out for the rest of the tournament with an Achilles injury. The 28-year-old had been a key figure for Italy down the left side. Without him, Mancini will lack an attacking threat - Spinazzola’s bursts to the byline had become an important feature of Italy’s game plan.

Spain have been somewhat erratic at Euro 2020. While they started the tournament with two wasteful performances, they then followed that up with 10 goals in two games against Slovakia and Croatia. Luis Enrique’s team were then taken to a penalty shootout by 10-man Switzerland in the quarter finals.

It’s difficult to get a handle on Spain as a team right now, but Enrique can take encouragement from how they have stayed undefeated at Euro 2020. Spain’s control of possession means Italy might only produce a handful of opportunities on the break, although the Azzurri have the technical capacity to hold on to the ball themselves.

Italy have won 14 of their last 15 European Championship matches (including qualifiers) while Spain are undefeated in their last 15. This could come down to who takes their chances in front of goal and who doesn’t. At this stage of the tournament, the margins are increasingly narrow.

Italy vs. Spain Predictions & Picks

2u - Back Italy Team To Score First @ -105

0.5u - Back Italy To Win By 2 Goals @ +700

Article Author


Graham Ruthven is a soccer writer and tipster who has written for the New York Times, Guardian, Eurosport and others.


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