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Spain vs. Netherlands betting picks and predictions for Thursday night's Women's World Cup Quarterfinals. Handicapper Stuart Durst is back with his picks for this one with a spot in the semifinals on the line.
ANALYSIS

Spain vs. Netherlands World Cup Betting Picks, Best Bets, and Predictions for Quarterfinals

We are past the first elimination round and have an exciting matchup between Spain and the Netherlands tonight! 

I expected the Spanish squad to be favored in this matchup, but I definitely didn't have it at -230 to advance. I figured the Spanish side would be priced somewhere around -175 to advance, but clearly, the books aren't reacting as strongly to that Japan loss as others. It's important to remember Spain came in as one of the favorites to win this tournament, and they may be catching their moment at a bad time. 

Spain vs. Netherlands Date, Time and Where to Watch

  • Date: August 10, 2023
  • Time: 9:00 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: FOX

Spain vs. Netherlands Prediction

While this Spain team has shown they have a strong attacking group, I’m not nearly as confident in the defense. The Japan game is the most notable example, allowing 4 goals in a loss. Despite allowing those 4 goals, they still managed to dominate time of possession in an 80/20 split. Despite the brutal loss, they did still show off the same attacking ferocity, just couldn't convert when it mattered. I am also clearly less impressed with the dominant win over the Swiss than the sportsbooks are, considering how uneven that matchup was. The Swiss don't have the attacking power to take advantage of Spain's weakness (despite some pretty solid early-game attempts) and we’re overrated on defense based on holding below-average teams to nil. 

The Netherlands have been impressive so far, and aren't a team to be slept on. They took care of business against South Africa and tied the United States in their biggest game of the tournament. They are a very solid defensive team that can strike at any moment with laser-like precision. They are never going to be the team that dominates time of possession and shots 40 times (against a competitive team, not Vietnam lol) but their strong coaching, discipline, and experience make them live in this game. Danielle van de Donk will also miss her first-ever international matchup thanks to back-to-back yellow cards, which will be a blow to the Dutch side. This Spanish side is resilient on offense, and the Dutch will need to be at full strength if they want to hold on here. 

While unders have been an absolute wagon this tournament, I thought that we might see a massive shift in the total pricing, but that hasn't been the case. Over 2.5 goals is +110 or better on almost every book, and I expected a price much closer to -110. Losing Alexia Putellas could have been a fatal blow for Spain, but it turned out to be a blessing in disguise with Aitana Bonmati having an insanely impressive tournament. Alexia Putellas will definitely be getting a goal scorer sprinkle at +375, especially considering she’s down to +185 on Fanduel (thanks Oddschecker!).

Spain vs. Netherlands Pick

Article Author

NFLNBANCAAF

Stuart Durst, also known as @MonotoneFootbal on Twitter, is a writer and sports bettor specializing in the NFL, NBA and CFB. When he’s not writing for OddsChecker, he enjoys playing basketball and talking player props with his community.

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