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Atalanta vs. Real Madrid Prediction, Statistics, Preview & Betting Picks

An in-depth look at Atalanta vs. Real Madrid. Giving our prediction and picks as well as the key statistics for that game. In addition to some leans elsewhere in the Champions League.
Samuel Farley
Tue, February 23, 3:16 PM

Atalanta vs. Real Madrid predictions – 3:00pm ET

This Wednesday we see the first leg of the clash between Atalanta and European giants Real Madrid.

Key Atalanta vs. Real Madrid Statistics:

  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Atalanta's past 3 UCL games
  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Atalanta's past 3 UCL games
  • Real Madrid have scored 2+ goals in 5 of their 6 group games

Atalanta vs. Real Madrid Expert Picks

1u – Atalanta win @ +135 (Click To Bet)

1u – Atalanta win to nil @ +380 (Click To Bet)

Let me take you behind the curtain of the process involved when writing these picks. I tend to think about the game first using my knowledge of the teams and what I've seen when watching them play. Then I look at stats and trends, as well as recent results, in addition to the likely lineups to see if any key players are missing. I then finally look at the OddsChecker grids and check the latest odds for the game. Why am I telling you this? Well it's to outline my surprise at the odds at play in this game. When I first thought of this game I expected that I'd pick Atalanta to win, expecting them to be around +200 and was shocked to see they were actually only +135 to win. I was also staggered to see Real Madrid as long as +205 to get the win. This threw me and I had to get really stuck into the numbers for the game.

Although I thought, and still think Atalanta will win, it's hard to see a team of Real Madrid's stature at over 2/1 and not think they're worth a look. Real have been unspectacular this year but they're now just three points behind Atletico. They have the look of La Liga champions, in that they've found a way to win, even when they're not playing well. So should you be backing Real here? Absolutely not. I think the odds are attractive but in missing Karim Benzema I think that they're missing their key player. The Frenchman has finally come out of the shadows of Ronaldo and is demonstrating why he's Madrid's key man, he's so talented as linking player and bringing the team together, that I feel his injury is the key to Atalanta's victory here.

In addition to Benzema who misses the game through injury, they're also missing Eden Hazard who will limit their attacking potential. Likewise Sergio Ramos, Marcelo and Dani Carvajal being injured means that Atalanta's impressive attack will be licking their lips at the chance to face Nacho and Vasquez.

At +135 I think Atalanta offer solid odds to secure the win. They've scored 53 goals in 23 Serie A games with Luis Muriel having scored 14 of them, Duvan Zapata 9 and Robin Gosens 7. That strikeforce gives me hope that they have the firepower to put Real to the sword.

Now back to my process when writing a picks piece. One trend that did leap out was that there had been under 2.5 goals scored in both Real and Atalanta's last 3 games in this competition. If we're expecting a low scoring game, which wouldn't have been my expectaction given what I've seen of Atalanta this year, then I think Madrid will struggle to scored. So I'm also taking Atalanta to win to nil at a big price of +380. 

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Wednesday Champions League Picks

You can read our picks for Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Man City HERE.

Wednesday Champions League Parlay

0.25u - Atalanta to win 1-0, Man City to win 2-1 @ +9800

Let's try and hit a home run. Try a tiny bet on this correct score double which echoes the sentiment in each of Wednesday's game previews.

Sam Farley
FarleyWrites
A lifelong football and basketball fan with years of experience in the sports gambling industry, Sam is known for his incredibly deep knowledge of all things NFL and NBA
Jan 2021
Record
Wins
8
Losses
7
Push
0
ROI
6.1%
0Betslip

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