Real Madrid vs. Atalanta Prediction, Statistics, Preview & Betting Picks

An in-depth look at Real Madrid vs. Atalanta. Giving our prediction and picks as well as the key statistics for that game. In addition to some leans elsewhere in the Champions League.
Samuel Farley
Tue, March 16, 8:58 AM EDT

Real Madrid vs. Atalanta predictions – 3:00pm ET

Real Madrid enter the game with a 1-0 aggregate lead but can they hold on to qualify for the next round of the Champions League? After a very profitable week last time out, including a 96/1 winner, our expert handicapper is looking for the best value.

Key Real Madrid vs. Atalanta Statistics:

  • There have been under 2.5 goals in Real Madrid's last 4 UCL games
  • There have been under 2.5 goals in Atalanta's last 4 UCL games

Real Madrid vs. Atalanta Expert Picks

1u – Atalanta @ +205 (Click To Bet)

1u - Under 2.5 Goals @ +140 (Click To Bet)

0.5u - Real Madrid 0-2 Atalanta @ +2000 (Click To Bet)

I was hugely looking forward to the first leg of this game but it was ruined in the 17th minute when Remo Freuler was given a red card, which in my view was not deserved. It killed the contest and put Atalanta at a real disadvantage, and they did well to only lose 1-0 given that they had 10 men for the vast majority of the game.

As a neutral it also deprived us of a chance to see a fun Atalanta team who are a joy to watch, even if they've not been quite as good this season as they were in the last. They managed to frustrate Madrid in the last game, playing with 10 men for over 70 minutes, only having 31% possession and allowing Real 19 shots. Madrid still only managed to win 1-0 which I think shows that this team is tough to beat.

We're keeping that in mind today and I'm hopeful they'll manage to keep all 11 men on the field, and if they do then I think they have a brilliant chance to beat Real Madrid here, at a big price of over 2/1. 

Madrid needed a 91st minute goal to beat Elche at the weekend and had drawn the previous two games since the first leg of this tie too. This is not a vintage Madrid side and as much as they want the glory years to return, as seen by links to resigning Cristiano Ronaldo, it won't happen this year.

Both sides have been in low scoring Champions League games of late, with the last 4 for each team featuring under 2.5 goals. We'll follow that trend again given that under 2.5 is +140 in this game, which seems surprisingly big.

Given I think Atalanta will win, and I see it being likely that there aren't many goals I've also had a sprinkle on a correct score, backing the Italians to leave with a 2-0 victory which will see them through to the next round.

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Tuesday Champions League Picks

You can read our picks for Man City vs. Gladbach HERE.

Tuesday Champions League Parlay

0.25u - Man City 3-0 and Atalanta 2-0 @ +15650

This is a real long shot and indicative of the lack of value we can see on the Man City game. We'll have a small sprinkle on a correct score parlay that is over 156/1!

Real Madrid vs. Atalanta Odds

Result

Odds

Public Betting % (Past 7 days)

Real Madrid

+132

71.11%

Atalanta

+205

17.78%

Draw

+275

11.11%

Real Madrid vs. Atalanta Betting

Real Madrid are taking very heavy backing with over 70% of the bets being on Los Blancos. Interestingly we see that in the same timeframe the majority of the money has actually been on Atalanta, who account for 42.77% of money, the draw at 35.29% and just 21.95% of money on the Spaniards.

Sam Farley
FarleyWrites
A lifelong football and basketball fan with years of experience in the sports gambling industry, Sam is known for his incredibly deep knowledge of all things NFL and NBA
Mar 2021
Record
Wins
13
Losses
6
Push
0
ROI
71.4%
0Betslip

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