Chelsea vs. Atletico Madrid Prediction, Statistics, Preview & Betting Picks

An in-depth look at Chelsea vs. Atletico Madrid. Giving our prediction and picks as well as the key statistics for that game. In addition to some leans elsewhere in the Champions League.
Samuel Farley
Wed, March 17, 8:11 AM EDT

Chelsea vs. Atletico Madrid predictions – 3:00pm ET

We're back for the final two games of this round of the Champions League. After a tight first leg we could be set for a classic between these two teams.

Key Chelsea vs. Atletico Madrid Statistics:

  • There have been under 2.5 goals in Atletico's last 5 UCL games.
  • Chelsea have 5 clean sheets in their past 7 UCL games.
  • Chelsea have won 5 of their last 6 UCL games.

Chelsea vs. Atletico Madrid Expert Picks

2u – Atletico Madrid @ +240 (Click To Bet)

If you've read any of my recent picks pieces featuring Chelsea you'll know just how impressed I've been with Thomas Tuchel since he arrived in West London. As I mentioned in my preview for Bayern vs. Lazio, I think the winner of this tie is arguably the most likely team beyond Man City and Bayern, to win the Champions League.

Chelsea have two problems which are going to be an issue today, firstly a lack of goals, and secondly injuries and suspensions. Those injuries and suspensions have also impacted the lack of goals, with some of the team's leading scorers under Tuchel missing this game. Chelsea will be without Jorginho, Mason Mount and Tammy Abraham, they'll also be weaker at the back with Thiago Silva looking likely to miss the game.

Atletico come into this with no injuries and have welcomed back the likes of Kieran Trippier who was one of a small number who missed the first leg. This isn't the Atletico Madrid of old and they have an array of seriously talented attacking stars. Luis Suarez and Joao Felix will be a major threat for the Blues and Atletico's midfield has been so strong recently with Marcos Llorente perhaps underrated outside of Spain.

I think Tuchel will have to put on a masterclass to keep Atletico out here and I'm not convinced they'll be able to stop the Spaniards. I'm backing Atletico at +240 which I think is huge value. They're also +275 to go through to the next round. I think they'll make it through but it isn't worth the extra risk to get a price which is only slightly better.

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Wednesday Champions League Picks

You can read our picks for Bayern Munich vs. Lazio HERE.

Wednesday Champions League Parlay

0.25u - Draw/Bayern & Draw/Atletico (halftime and fulltime) @ +3465

If we're looking for a longshot parlay for today's games then I think the halftime/fulltime market offers some value with over 34/1 on draws at halftime before Bayern and Atletico both win.

Chelsea vs. Atletico Madrid Odds

Result

Odds

Public Betting % (Past 7 days)

Chelsea

+135

26.67%

Atletico Madrid

+240

46.67%

Draw

+220

26.67%

Chelsea vs. Atletico Madrid Betting

Chelsea may have won the first leg but it's Atletico Madrid who have a narrow lead in the betting, with just under 50% of bets being on the Spaniards. When it comes to handle it's actually the draw which has been backed with the most money, with 46.42% of the money being placed on the tie.

Sam Farley
FarleyWrites
A lifelong football and basketball fan with years of experience in the sports gambling industry, Sam is known for his incredibly deep knowledge of all things NFL and NBA
Mar 2021
Record
Wins
13
Losses
6
Push
0
ROI
71.4%
0Betslip

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