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Porto vs. Chelsea Prediction, Statistics, Preview & Betting Picks

An in-depth look at Porto vs. Chelsea. Giving our prediction and picks as well as the key statistics for that game. In addition to some leans elsewhere in the Champions League.
Samuel Farley
Wed, April 7, 6:38 AM EDT

Porto vs. Chelsea predictions – 3:00pm ET

Porto play Chelsea in a game that lacks the glamour of today's other tie between Bayern Munich and PSG. This game could be a tactical masterclass with Thomas Tuchel going up against Sergio Conceicao.

Key Porto vs. Chelsea Statistics:

  • Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in 6 of their last 8 UCL games.
  • Chelsea have won 6 of their last 7 UCL games.
  • There have been Under 2.5 Goals in Chelsea's past 3 UCL games.

Porto vs. Chelsea Expert Picks

1u – Chelsea win to nil @ +160 (Click To Bet)

0.5u – Draw/Chelsea (Halftime/Fulltime) @ +360 (Click To Bet)

When the Champions League draw was made it instantly pushed Chelsea to being one of the favorites to win the trophy. Chelsea got drawn in the 'weak' side of the bracket, by which they avoided PSG, Bayern Munich and Man City, until the final, if they get there.

So what can we expect from this game? I believe that it's going to be low scoring. One thing we've learned during Thomas Tuchel's time at Chelsea is that the German manager is risk averse. Chelsea have generally looked to control possession, dictate the tempo and pick teams off. That's led to a number of low scoring games, something which we've seen make us a good profit in our Champions League and Premier League picks. I think we're set to see that again here.

Porto started their first leg against Juventus, in the previous round, with an early goal. They played brilliantly but I expect them to not go attacking that early here. I think that they'll look to try and keep things tight and not take too many risks either. 

Against Juventus we saw a brilliant defensive stand as Porto managed to thwart Ronaldo and co, with Pepe at the heart of their backline, I believe we'll see similar. Look for Porto to try and soak up pressure before looking to put Moussa Marega through on goal. 

I don't think we'll see Porto score. Tuchel will again play 3 centrebacks and the added support from the wingbacks and Jorginho shielding those 3, will frustrate Porto. Chelsea will have enough to win this game but I think it may come in the second half, with Chelsea feeling out their opposition in the first 45.

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Wednesday Champions League Picks

You can read our picks for Bayern Munich vs. PSG HERE.

Wednesday Champions League Parlay

0.25u - Draw/Bayern & Draw/Chelsea @ +2320

I believe both games could be slow starters, so we're taking both to be draws at halftime before the stronger teams both go on to win in the second halves.

Porto vs. Chelsea Odds

Result

Odds

Public Betting % (Past 7 days)

Porto

+440

45.45%

Chelsea

-125

51.52%

Draw

+250

3.03%

Porto vs. Chelsea Betting

It's surprising that the betting is so close between these two teams given that Porto are massive underdogs according to the sportsbooks. 51.52% of bets are on Chelsea, compared to 45.45% on Porto, which is very close. It was a shock to see that the majority of the handle being on Porto, who account for 68.52% of all money wagered on the game.

Sam Farley
FarleyWrites
A lifelong football and basketball fan with years of experience in the sports gambling industry, Sam is known for his incredibly deep knowledge of all things NFL and NBA
Mar 2021
Record
Wins
13
Losses
6
Push
0
ROI
71.4%
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