Chelsea vs. Real Madrid Prediction, Statistics, Preview & Champions League Semi Final Betting Picks

An in-depth look at Chelsea vs. Real Madrid. Giving our prediction and picks as well as the key statistics for that game. In addition to some leans elsewhere in the Champions League.
Samuel Farley
Wed, May 5, 8:13 AM EDT

Champions League: Chelsea vs. Real Madrid predictions – 3:00pm ET

Yesterday's game saw Man City win and seal their spot in the this month's showcase game but who will join them? Will it be Real Madrid who'd represent old money facing new money, or will Chelsea make it an all-English Champions League final.

Key Chelsea vs. Real Madrid Statistics:

  • There have been under 2.5 goals in Chelsea last 6 Champions League games.
  • Chelsea have only lost one of their past 11 Champions League games.
  • Real Madrid haven't lost any of their past 6 Champions League games.

Champions League Semi Final Second Leg: Chelsea vs. Real Madrid Expert Picks

1u - Under 2.5 Goals @ -118 (Click To Bet)

0.5u - Sergio Ramos To Get A Card @ +180 (Click To Bet)

Last week when these two met it was at Real Madrid's training ground in horrific weather conditions but things should be better this time.

The first leg between the teams finished with under 2.5 goals, which looked very unlikely after 29 minutes when Karim Benzema showed off his incredible technique to blast one in on the volley. If you've been following my picks you'll know that under 2.5 goals has been a regular wager for me since Thomas Tuchel arrived in West London and that won't change here. In 23 games since the German arrived only 3 have seen 3+ goals, that in almost unheard of, and odds of -118 are too low.

Yes, there is a chance that we see plenty of goals as one side has to chase a lead in order to save their Champions League dream but I think the value is just too good when you look at the trends.

One defensive star who will be returning is Sergio Ramos, with Real Madrid's talisman back in action after a long period out, with both injuries and also Covid-19. This is a big game, against a fast Chelsea team and I fear that it isn't the easiest game for Ramos' return, especially if he isn't 100% fit, and also without Raphael Varane alongside him. I think +185 for Ramos to get a card is a great wager here it feels like this could be one of those games where he becomes the talking point. I'm not sure why but I can imagine him scoring one here to seal Madrid's place in the final, or giving up a penalty. Hunches aren't a reason to wager money, so I'll park that, and my feeling that Eden Hazard could come off the bench to knock Chelsea out, and focus on what we know, which is that Ramos will be rusty and we should back him to get a card.

As for a result, I'm leaning toward Chelsea, I think they're a better team with a clearer sense of identity but it's hard to rule out Real Madrid when their starting lineup consists of so many winners. I certainly wouldn't discourage you from backing Chelsea to win at +125 and feel like they should qualify, but it's just too hard to predict, so in terms of official picks, we'll avoid.

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Chelsea vs. Real Madrid Score Prediction

Chelsea 1-0 Real Madrid @ +800 (Click To Bet)

Chelsea vs. Real Madrid First Leg Result

The first lef of this game took place on Tuesday April 27.

Real Madrid

1-1

Chelsea

Benzema '29

Goals

Pulisic '14

 

Red Cards

 

Champions League Semi Final: Chelsea vs. Real Madrid Odds

Result

Odds

Public Betting % (Past 24 hours)

Chelsea

+125

48.44%

Real Madrid

+255

42.19%

Draw

+240

9.38%

Chelsea vs. Real Madrid Public Betting

This game is closer than yesterday's match in the betting, where the vast majority of bettors were backing the English side. The English side are still the favorites with bettors but Real Madrid have only taken 6% less of the bets over the past 24 hours.

One interesting wrinkle is that the draw has taken only 9.38% of bets in the past 24 hours but it has accounted for 23.57% of the money wagered, indicating that some big money has been bet on that market.

Champions League: Chelsea vs. Real Madrid Expected Lineups

This is how we expect both teams to line up on Wednesday 5th May, with Sergio Ramos likely to return for Los Blancos.

Chelsea XI: Mendy, Christensen, Silva, Rudiger, Azpilicueta, Kante, Jorginho, Mount, Chilwell, Werner, Pulisic.

Real Madrid XI: Courtois, Odriozola, Militao, Ramos, Mendy, Modric, Casemiro, Kroos, Asensio, Junior, Benzema.

What time does Chelsea vs. Real Madrid kick off?

The game kicks off at 3pm ET. The local time in London where the game is taking place at Stamford Bridge is 8pm.

How To Watch Chelsea vs. Real Madrid In The Champions League

You can watch today's big game on TV or with a stream.

TV: CBS Sports Network

Live stream: Paramount+

Sam Farley
FarleyWrites
A lifelong football and basketball fan with years of experience in the sports gambling industry, Sam is known for his incredibly deep knowledge of all things NFL and NBA
Mar 2021
Record
Wins
13
Losses
6
Push
0
ROI
71.4%
0Betslip

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