Man City vs. Chelsea Prediction, Champions League Final Picks, Odds & Stats

An in-depth look at Man City vs. Chelsea. Giving our prediction and picks for the Champions League final.
Samuel Farley
Thu, May 27, 9:02 AM EDT

Champions League Final Picks: Man City vs. Chelsea Prediction

The biggest prize in club soccer is nearly here with Saturday's final between Man City and Chelsea the second all-English final in the past three seasons. The eyes of the world will be on Portugal to watch this exciting game.

Key Man City vs. Chelsea Statistics:

  • Man City have won their past 7 Champions League games.
  • There have been under 2.5 goals in Chelsea's past 7 Champions League games.
  • Man City have scored 2+ goals in their past 7 Champions League matches.
  • Chelsea have only lost one of their past 12 Champions League games.

Champions League Final Predictions: Man City vs. Chelsea Expert Picks

4u - Man City @ -107 (Click To Bet)

2u - Man City -1 @ +265 (Click To Bet)

1u - Phil Foden to score @ +310 (Click To Bet)

0.5u - Rodri to get booked @ +200 (Click To Bet)

It's finally here, the showpiece of the club season, the Champions League final between Man City and Chelsea, so it's time to get stuck into my Champions League Final prediction.

I'll cut to the chase, Manchester City should win this game. It's what the form tells us, it's what our eyes tell us and it's what the Champions League Final Odds tell us too. 

If you've been following my picks throughout the season then you'll know how much I've enjoyed betting on Thomas Tuchel's Chelsea. When the German replaced Frank Lampard it caused some outrage with fans at Stamford Bridge but within weeks they'd changed their minds. Thomas Tuchel's brand of soccer isn't the most exciting and perhaps isn't one for the purists, but he's a huge upgrade from Frank Lampard. He's hyper-obsessive, pragmatic and more importantly, very good at getting his ideas across to his players, which is why we've seen such rapid change in Chelsea's fortunes.

Last season Thomas Tuchel took PSG very close to winning their first Champions League trophy and his pedigree is easy to see. Chelsea have got smarter on the field and a lot harder to score against. Earlier in his tenure there was incredible money to be made on backing Under 2.5 Goals in every game, but the bookies have wisened up and those odds are a best price -152 for Saturday's game. At that price it simply can't be entertained, not when Manchester City have such potential going forward.

Chelsea at +350 too are perhaps a good value play, they have the ability to beat Man City, something we saw in the FA Cup semifinal and could pull off a shock here. I think the reality is that Chelsea are potentially a season off, with Tuchel needing a summer window to bring in players that best fit his system. I've no doubt that Chelsea can limit City's scoring if they're at their best but it's going to be harder to break down City's backline.

Timo Werner gets a huge amount of criticism, something that is probably deserved with his small goal return and high transfer fee but he's one of Tuchel's most trusted players and although he doesn't help the team out with as many goals as you'd like, it's clear that he's their best option up front. He stretches the field and has better movement than Giroud, soething which allows Chelsea' attacking midfield talents, led my Mason Mount to thrive. 

Mount is going to be integral is Chelsea have a chance of winning this game, so if you're thinking that Chelsea win I'd recommend combining that with a wager on Mount to score, but for me he's going to find it tough against Rodri, who'll drop back and help Man City's defense and likely commit a number of tactical fouls. If you've watched much of Manchester City under Pep Guardiola then you'll know how much his holding midfielder, be it Rodri or Fernandinho, does to disrupt play. Both are experts in the dark arts and seem to get away with far too much shirt pulling, ankle clips and obstruction, each game before they get booked. I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see Rodri, who is likely to start in that role, get booked during this game, especially with Chelsea's array of attacking midfield talent who'll be trying to exploit the spaces between City's midfield and defense.

As mentioned above, I can't look beyond Man City winning this game. They have almost unlimited money at their disposal, the best coach in the sport and now the best team on the planet. This is their time and anything but a victory would be a huge blow for the project.

City's defensive stability has been the real story of this season, it's an area of their game that is hugely improved, with Ruben Dias' arrival at the Ethihad my choice for signing of the season. His no-nonense physical approach blends well with his partner John Stones, who is perhaps more refined. Dias' leadership too, is a huge part of their success and incredibly impressive given both his age and the fact he only arrived this season.

I struggle to see Man City conceeding here, and certainly not more than one if it happens. Which means City need to score two and, again, I can't see that not happening. City's linkup play and passing is the best in the world right now and in Kevin De Bruyne they have the best midfield talent of his generation. He's an artist who threads the game together and will be looking for yet more revenge against Chelsea, his former team who cast him aside without really giving him much opportunity in the Premier League.

Alongside De Bruyne is Phil Foden, who we've almost run out of superlatives for. Foden is a future Ballon D'or winner, the best British hope of a generation and a player who will run this Man City team for a decade. It isn't hyperbole to say he has everything. He has pace, a keen eye for goal, astute passing, mindblowing technique and incredible vision, he reminds me some of the best players of Pep Guardiola's Barcelona team, with shades of Andres Iniesta and maybe even a little Lionel Messi. Every worldclass player needs a coming out party and although most soccer fans know about Phil Foden it feels like this could be the Stockport born stars chance to breakout and become a global young star alongside the likes of Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland. I'm backing the young England star to score at +310, he has plenty of opportunity to get forward and score and this feels like it's his time to step out and announce himself to the world.

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Champions League Final, Man City vs. Chelsea FanDuel Same Game Parlay

Seeing as it's the Champions League final I've decided to build a bet using FanDuel's Same Game Parlay feature. This bet has three legs and odds of +5170.

  • Over 0.5 goals scored in the first half.
  • Manchester City to win 2-0.
  • Phil Foden to score first.

Man City vs. Chelsea Score Prediction

Man City 2-0 Chelsea @ +725 (Click To Bet)

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Champions League Final Odds: Man City vs. Chelsea Odds

Result

Odds

Public Betting % (Past 7 Days)

Man City

-107

56.06%

Chelsea

+350

36.9%

Draw

+250

7.04%

Man City vs. Chelsea Public Betting

A huge amount of bets and money have been placed on Manchester City with most Champions League predictions expecting Pep Guardiola's men to win with ease. 

A huge 56.06% of all bets over the past 7 days have been on City, with public support for Chelsea faltering after a difficult couple of weeks to end the season including that FA Cup Final loss to Leicester City.

Champions League Final: Man City vs. Chelsea Expected Lineups

This is how we expect both teams to line up on Saturday 29th May.

Man City XI: Ederson, Walker, Stones, Dias, Zinchenko, Silva, Rodri, Gundogan, Mahrez, De Bruyne, Foden.

Chelsea XI: Mendy, Azpilicueta, Silva, Rudiger, James, Jorginho, Kante, Chilwell, Ziyech, Mount, Werner.

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What time does the Champions League final, Man City vs. Chelsea kick off?

The game kicks off at 3pm ET. The local time in Porto where the game is taking place at 8pm.

Where is the Champions League taking place?

The Champions League final is being held at Estadio Dragao, in Porto.

How To Watch Man City vs. Chelsea In The Champions League Final

You can watch the Champions League final on TV or with a stream.

When: 3pm

TV: CBS

Live stream: Paramount+

How To Bet On Man City vs. Chelsea

You can bet on Saturday's game with the majority of legal sportsbooks in the country. Click here and see where you can bet on the game in your state.

Sam Farley
FarleyWrites
A lifelong football and basketball fan with years of experience in the sports gambling industry, Sam is known for his incredibly deep knowledge of all things NFL and NBA
Mar 2021
Record
Wins
13
Losses
6
Push
0
ROI
71.4%
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