Euro 2020: England vs. Croatia Prediction
- No Euro 2020 participant have conceded more goals in competitive gamed since the 2018 World Cup than Croatia.
- England scored 37 goals in their 8 qualifying games, an average of 4.63 per game.
- England have won 15 of their last 16 games on home soil.
There’s plenty of optimism around this youthful England side, a rarity going into any tournament around the Three Lions. One key benefit for Gareth Southgate and his players is they’ll have all group games at Wembley in front of home fans, surely one of the reasons why they’re so short to win their group.
Croatia reached the final in the last major tournament, the 2018 World Cup. However, since then they’ve really toiled as key players don’t have the legs they once had and the likes of Mario Mandzukic and Ivan Rakitic have retired. Luka Modric was the player of the tournament in 2018 but he has had to play a lot of football for an injury ravaged Real Madrid this season.
Defensively Croatia have looked all at sea. Dejan Lovren and Duje Caleta-Car are liabilities and Domagoj Vida is playing at a pretty poor standard in Turkey and is also ageing. Right back Sime Vrsaljko started just 6 games for Atletico Madrid this season too. Against the better sides in the past couple of years they’ve conceded multiple times on various occasions and they’ve leaked against the likes of Wales, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Slovakia and Armenia.
With the plentiful options going forward for the hosts we could see them grab a couple of goals and the -105 available on England to score over 1.5 goals looks a generous quote, especially given they’re as short as -150 to win the game.
The aforementioned Duje Caleta-Car always puts himself about and struggles to time his tackles well. He picked up 13 cards in 45 competitive games this season and will struggle with the pace and guile England have at the top of the pitch. At +350 to go into the book he looks worthy of a small play, especially when we consider the referee is Italian Danielle Orsato who averages over 5 cards per game in his career.
EURO 2020: England vs. Croatia Pick
England Over 1.5 Goals @ -105
England vs. Croatia Lineups
England Probable Lineup (via WhoScored):
Pickford, Trippier, Stones, Mings, Shaw, Rice, Phillips, Sterling, Mount, Grealish, Kane
Croatia Probable Lineup (via WhoScored):
Livakovic, Vrsaljko, Vida, Caleta-Car, Barisic, Brozovic, Kovacic, Rebic, Modric, Petkovic
England vs. Croatia Head to Head
|July 11, 2018||Croatia vs England||2-1||World CUP 2018|
|October 12, 2018||England vs Croatia||0-0||
|November 18, 2018||England vs Croatia||2-1||UEFA Nations League|
England vs. Croatia Prediction
England 2-1 Croatia