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Graham Ruthven is back with picks for Croatia vs. Spain on Monday

Croatia vs. Spain Predictions: EURO 2020 Odds & Picks

While Croatia and Spain boast significant tournament pedigree, both teams have toiled at Euro 2020 so far. Indeed, they have just two wins from six games played between them. Such is the individual quality they possess, though, neither side can be written off this early in the tournament.

That goes for Spain in particular, who come into Monday’s last 16 tie having put five goals past Slovakia in their final group game. Croatia also produced their best display of Euro 2020 in their final group game against Scotland. This could be a close one to call. Here are some tips and predictions for Croatia v Spain on Monday June 28.

Croatia vs. Spain Predictions

Date: Monday, June 28

Time: 12pm ET

Latest odds: Croatia +575, Draw +280, Spain -167

View the full Croatia vs. Spain odds here.

After defeat to England and an underwhelming draw against Czech Republic, many claimed this group of Croatian players had reached the end of a cycle. However, the impressive display against Scotland proved there is still plenty left in the tank, with Luka Modric shining brighter than anyone else on the pitch.

Zlatko Dalic must do his best to push Modric high up the pitch. That’s where the 35-year-old can have the greatest influence on the match. Nikola Vlasic provided some much-needed attacking verve against Scotland and it’s his combination play with Modric that will give Croatia a chance of gaining a foothold against a possession-hungry opponent.

At times, Spain are guilty of being too possession hungry. Their first two Euro 2020 performances against Sweden and Poland drew accusations of over-playing. Luis Enrique’s decision to bring in Gerard Moreno and Pablo Sarabia were intended to provide more attacking thrust and cutting edge.

Spain have been desperately wasteful in front of goal at Euro 2020 so far. Indeed, Spain boasted a higher Expected Goals (xG) value (8.8) than any other side in the group stage, and only Scotland underperformed their xG by so much (2.8). The likes of Alvaro Morata, who missed a penalty against Slovakia, and Moreno, who missed a penalty against Poland, must be sharper.

This is a match that will be decided in the centre of the pitch. Both teams have faced criticism over their attacking output at Euro 2020, but Croatia and Spain are among the strongest in the tournament when it comes to their midfield options. Whoever controls that area best will likely progress to the quarter finals.

Croatia vs. Spain Predictions & Expert Picks

1u - Under 1.5 Total Goals @ +235

0.5u - Extra Time Yes @ +600

Article Author


Graham Ruthven is a soccer writer and tipster who has written for the New York Times, Guardian, Eurosport and others.


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