We look across the Atlantic at today's Premier League match between Manchester City and Newcastle United. Can City continue plundering goals against The Magpies?
It’s not the most glamourous tie, but there’s still value to be found in Newcastle v Manchester City.
This is a fixture where Rafa Benitez generally stinks the place out like it’s never been stunk out before – last season’s 1-0 City victory at St. James’ Park still gives me nightmares – although Newcastle never usually get thrashed by the bigger sides, which somewhat justifies his choice of tactics.
It’ll be hard for Newcastle to avoid a convincing defeat against City considering the form they’re in; Pep Guardiola’s men have already banged 33 goals in since the turn of the year (which is more than Huddersfield managed over the entirety of 2018), and this looks to be the worst possible time to face them.
City have a good record at St. James’, too - winning three of their last four away games against Newcastle, and I have no doubt another one is on the cards, although there’s little value in backing that!
Instead, I’m going for City to be winning at half-time and full-time. Eight straight victories sees City head into this flying, and although Newcastle generally make it tough for their visitors (while still managing to eventually lose), the champions have scored more first half goals than second half goals this season, which is a rarity in the league.
The Magpies have lost eight times at home already this season, putting them third-bottom of the Premier League home table, and they simply don’t have the quality to resist this City side for 90 minutes.
He’s been in and out of the side with injury issues over the past few weeks, but Sergio Aguero will be fit and firing on Tuesday to line up against Newcastle.
The Argentine’s record against Newcastle is absolutely phenomenal: 14 goals in his 10 appearances. No side has conceded more against him.
Aguero to score at any time is a good prospect; this record, coupled with his love for playing Newcastle, makes for a deadly combination.
For Tuesday’s longshot, I’ve backed the final score to be 3-1 to Manchester City – priced at 11/1.
Newcastle will try and remain resolute – a tactic which has frustrated City in games gone by - but I ultimately can’t see them holding out for too long this time around. City last scored three at St. James’ Park back in 2013, and it seems about time for another.
Newcastle, to their credit, have scored against Spurs, Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United and City this season (all of which ending up as consolations), showing they do have it in their locker to breach better sides’ defences.
11/1 is a great price for one of the more likely outcomes.