There hasn’t been a shortage of drama in recent North London Derbies, and though this one has come around very early in the season, I do think we could be in for an all-action affair once again at The Emirates on Sunday.
The Gunners will be relatively content with their start to the season—winning their opening two matches before unashamedly losing at Anfield—while Spurs followed-up their excellent draw against Manchester City with a bitterly disappointing home defeat against Newcastle.
I don’t know what it is, but there’s something a little wrong at Spurs; in their last 15 league matches (spanning the end of last season and the start of this), Mauricio Pochettino’s men have won just four times. The draw at the Etihad suggests Spurs aren’t exactly falling apart (though a 3.39 – 0.12 xG deficit in that match tells its own story), but I’m backing them to lose at The Emirates on Sunday.
Arsenal were outplayed by Liverpool last week, but just six defeats in three Premier League seasons at home is a pretty formidable record. Unai Emery’s side have won their last two meetings with Spurs at home, scoring six goals, and with the visitors winless in their last seven on the road, +137 seems generous.
I’ve also thrown in Arsenal to win + BTTS; one clean sheet in their last eight Premier League matches doesn’t read particularly favorably, so this is a longer-priced selection with plenty of promise.
2u - Arsenal To Win (3-Way Moneyline) @ +137
1u - Arsenal To Win & Both Teams To Score @ +280
I’m also backing a penalty to be awarded.
Penalties have been scored in three of the last five NLDs in the Premier League, and though Martin Atkinson had just a 0.21 penalties-per-match ratio last season (towards the lower end of the spectrum), this is a fixture which still regularly dishes up spot-kicks.
1u - Penalty To Be Awarded In Match @ +190
By Ryan Elliott