Premier League Picks: Aston Villa v Sheffield United

Premier League soccer is back and Aston Villa are battling for to retain their status in the league as they welcome Europa League-hopefuls Sheffield United to a crowdless Villa Park.

Best Bet: 1u - Sheffield United to win & Under 2.5 goals @ +390

At nearly 4/1 this looks like a very great price. If these two teams restart anywhere near the form that they found themselves in before the break then there is only one winner. Aston Villa were abject before the league was put on hold and it seems unlikely they'd have improved enough in this time to tackle Sheffield United.

Villa sit in 19th in the league and have lost their last 4 Premier League games. More worrying for their absent fanbase is that they lost those games comprehensively, having been losing at both half-time and full-time in both. I toyed with the idea of backing Sheffield United to win at haltime and fulltime at +275 but we get better value here. We've learned from the Bundesliga that home advantage is far less of an advantage in this Covid-19 era of soccer, so with quality the only metric, United look value at +128 to secure the three points.

Sheffield United have excelled this season and find themselves sat in the lofty heights of 7th. They've done that through being tight at the back, they have the league's second best defensive record, and an exciting well-coorindated attack. Amazingly, this approach has led to 11 of their last 12 games ending with under 2.5 goals, something available at -128. Having returned from the hiatus I think it's likely they may not be at their fluid attacking best, furthering the liklihood of this game not being a shootout.

Given the above it makes the price of +390 for Sheffield United to win and under 2.5 goals, look too appealing to turn down.