Watford vs. Southampton Picks
(2u) Under 2.5 Goals @ -140
Watford and Nigel Pearson will be desperately disappointed that they succumbed to a defeat at Burnley on Thursday.
It was a huge opportunity to put genuine daylight between themselves and the relegation zone, and with games starting to run out, that is the sort of result which ensures they’ll remain firmly in this relegation battle until the bitter end.
As for Southampton, they will also be disappointed not to have earned even a point against Arsenal, with goalkeeper Alex McCarthy doing everything in his power to prevent his side from emerging with anything, but Ralph Hasenhuttl will know that one more victory will move his side to 40 points, and surely absolute safety.
I felt pretty confident that Watford would beat Burnley on Thursday, but their performance was a really worrying one, and suddenly their survival credentials don’t quite look so clever; I still believe they’ll stay up on virtue of a much kinder run-in than Bournemouth and Aston Villa.
In terms of value, I think -140 for under 2.5 goals is generous.
Both of Watford’s matches post-restart have seen under 2.5 goals, and over the course of the season 55% of their games have ended with two goals or fewer.
The stakes are unbelievably high for The Hornets, and like in their matches against Leicester and Burnley, they’ll prioritize solidity – particularly with the ever-present threat of Danny Ings on the opposite side.
Four of the previous six meetings between these two have seen under 2.5 goals, and I believe that’ll be the case this time around as well.
(1u) Draw @ +220
On top of the under 2.5 goals, I’m also tentatively backing a draw.
We’ve seen draws in three of the last five meetings between the two sides, and while Watford is generally quite solid, they’ve only scored 28 times this season – only Norwich has done so fewer times, so whatever happens this one will be very tight.
Watford is a slight favorite, but I honestly don’t see much at all separating these two, so as a value play, backing a draw looks the way to go.
Watford vs. Southampton Odds
Watford to win: +150 - Click here to bet on Watford with BetAmerica
Southampton to win: -210 - Click here to bet on Southampton with Sugar House
Draw: +220 - Click here to bet on a draw with 888Sport
Watford vs. Southampton Betting
45% of bets are on Watford to win
29% of bets are on Southampton to win
26% of bets are on a draw