Soccer writer Sam Farley is back with a look at Thursday's biggest game. You can see his picks for the other Premier League games on the day at the bottom of the page.
Key Liverpool vs. Chelsea Statistics:
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Liverpool's last 6 home games in the league
- Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their past 7 EPL games
- Chelsea are undefeated in their past 7 league games
- There have been under 2.5 goals in 8 of Chelsea's past 9 games
Liverpool vs. Chelsea Expert Picks
1u – Under 2.5 Goals @ +104 (Click To Bet)
Look, if you've read the stats above and then you've seen the pick I've gone for, then it's not hard to understand why.
On Sunday I backed under 1.5 goals in the Chelsea vs. Man Utd game, and also backed the 0-0 draw, in my piece. In that piece I wrote that "Tuchel would be playing to not lose, rather than win, and I think that applies again here, this is a game that Chelsea won't risk losing." The same applies in this game and I can't see Chelsea going overboard to win.
One thing that might be different is Liverpool, who are more likely to push for a win that Man Utd were on Sunday, who were happy settling for a point, that just isn't in Liverpool's DNA under Jurgen Klopp. Chelsea have been so impressive of late but I think there could be value in Liverpool here at +125, and they're +320 to win to nil.
Despite being tempted at those prices I think it's safest just to stick with the under. I just can't see Chelsea overextending themselves and letting this become a shootout. With both teams find themselves in low scoring games of late it's best to back that trend, especially when it's over +100.
Thursday Premier League Picks
Feel free to follow my other leans for Wednesday
Thursday Premier League Parlay
A $20 parlay of all of today's bets would return over $127 if you bet with Bet365!
We now have a brand new parlay calculator, allowing you to work out the return on your parlays! Click HERE to try it out.