Sunday's Premier League slate hosts the Manchester Derby as the Premier League's runaway leaders welcome second place Man Utd to the Etihad.
Key Man City vs. Man Utd Statistics:
- Man City have won their past 15 league games
- Man Utd haven't lose in 21 road games
- Man Utd have drawn their past 4 road games
- Man Utd have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their past 7 on the road
- Man Utd have scored 2+ goals in 6 of their past 7 games
Man City vs. Man Utd Expert Picks
1u – Man City -1 @ +145 (Click To Bet)
Man City come into this game as -200 favorites and I'm genuinely surprised that it's not shorter. -200 implies a 66.7% probability that City win the game and I think the reality is far closer to something like 80%.
I think when it comes down to picking a winner some people will point to this United side being second in the league and being unbeaten on the road in 21 games. Those two facts give the impression that this is a great side but the reality is far from that.
United are 14 points behind their City rivals. The season is over, it's done, nobody is catching them, these teams are worlds apart. United's 21 game unbeaten run on the road includes draws to awful sides like Crystal Palace and West Brom, narrow wins over strugglers Fulham and 0-0 draws against bigger sides like Liverpool, Arsenal and City. This unbeaten away run that Man United are on is a catfish, it's misleading and hiding the truth about this team.
United look so tired. Marcus Rashford clearly needs a break and isn't at the high levels that we've previously seen. United's talisman Bruno Fernandes also looks to be struggling to find his best form and is starting to get frustrated with his teammates. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer doesn't trust his squad like Pep Guardiola and doesn't rotate as much, which has led to the burnout we see here.
City meanwhile keep storming on. This version of Man City is the best I've seen under Guardiola and if they don't let up for the rest of the season then there is a debate that it may be the best team we've seen in the Premier League. They have so much depth across the board and have found ways to continue to play brilliantly even when key players are out, something their rivals have struggled with. Defensively they are also so astute and that'll be key here.
United are goalless in their past three games and I think they'll struggle to unlock this City team. With that in mind I'm taking the City -1 handicap to squeeze some extra value out of this game. I'd be tempted to try +390 for City -2 but I think it's safer to just go with -1 at a tasty +145.
Sunday Premier League Picks
Feel free to follow my other leans for Sunday
Sunday Premier League Parlay
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