AT&T Byron Nelson Betting Picks & Preview
The Coore/Crenshaw designed Trinity Forest appeared on our screens for the first time last year and it proved to be a major success. This manufactured links style course is different to proper links tracks mainly because it can be played through the air. Winds may play a factor here but essentially there is plenty of room off the tee and the key to success is approaching the green. SG Approach and Proximity to the hole are a couple of stats I will look to as this is primarily a second shot golf course.
Wise and Leishman made minced meat of it last year and similar scores can probably be expected here despite weather conditions being slightly more adverse than 2018. The design duo have had a hand at Pinehurst and maybe most notably for us from a betting perspective Waialee in Hawaii. The RBC Heritage is another event we maybe need to look to as that is probably one of the most similar tracks that relies on approach play.
Brooks Koepka is a very tempting proposition at +750 this week. His major wins have been produced around courses that have a lot of similarities to Trinity Forest. He showed once again his major prowess when finishing 2nd in the Masters with many having doubted him in the lead in due to average form. A week before the PGA and we can assume we may see another solid effort from the major machine. I think the price is a bit of value certainly and I wouldn't put anyone off getting involved.
At more than double the price of Koepka this looks like the week to throw a few shillings on HIDEKI MATSUYAMA (best price +1400). Coincidentally his last win on the tour came the week before the PGA when he absolutely blitzed the field on the weekend to win the Bridgestone. I am hoping for a repeat and there are signs that a win is only around the corner. Matsuyama struggles off the tee for the main part and the wide open fairways should be a welcome sight. He ranks 6th in strokes gained approach this year and Trinity Forest is likely to be the place where we see his best result of the year to date.
It has been brewing with his last missed cut 10 months ago at the Open Championship. Hideki has finally rediscovered consistency in his results and a win looks nailed on in my eyes some time this season. There aren't a whole pile below him in the betting that have done a lot of winning lately and on the face of it this event looks like it could go to one of the top two in the betting. Hideki gets my vote at +1400 to get back on the winners rota.
2.5u - Hideki Matsuyama To Win @+1400
2.5u - Hideki Matsuyama To Finish Top 5 @+350
KEITH MITCHELL (best price +3300) has impressed this season and a second win looks a possibility as he carries that winning Honda form into the rest of the season. He is another who struggles a bit off the tee and should welcome the easier test. He has adequate strokes gained approach for this season and may contend here for the second year running. He finished 3rd here last year closing with a spectacular 63 to finish on 19 under. The top ten at Quail Hollow last week was another sign that he may just be about to hit winning form again. He posted a top 20 earlier in the year at Waialee which is another positive. +3300 looks a fair enough price to me given his run here last year and I've been impressed with how calm he has been whilst in contention this year.
1.25u - Keith Mitchell To Win @+3300
1.25u - Keith Mitchell To Finish Top 5 @+800
Irishman SEAMUS POWER (best price +8000) is benefiting from a change of coach and Trinity Forest may just be the venue where he can gain his first victory. He opened last year with a very respectable 66 but a disappointing second round saw him miss the weekend. He is a different golfer now and that is no surprise given the holistic approach of Nick Bradley has been binned. The results have improved dramatically and quickly with 6th at Harbour Town and then a mighty impressive 13th at Quail Hollow last week. A manufactured links such as this may just be right up Power's street. He played well for most of the Olympic Games event in 2016 also which was a flat exposed track similar to this. Overall I thought the bookmakers would be a shade more alive to his chances this week and I'm more than prepared to have a bash at the +8000.
1u - Seamus Power To Win @+8000
1u - Seamus Power To Finish Top 5 @+1600
Finally I'll have a few quid on SCOTT PIERCY. (best price +5000) He came very close to winning the Heritage last time out finishing just 2 shots behind eventual winner CT Pan. In 2012 Piercy won the Canadian Open in 17 under. He won the Reno Taho in 2011 in 15 under. He won the Barbasol in 19 under and has a host of other good finishes on tracks where a ton of birdies are needed to contend. He has a runner up spot at Waialee which ticks another of my boxes this week. +5000 looks a tasty enough price to get involved with someone coming here off the back of a top 3 finish. Others close to being backed this week were CT Pan, Kevin Tway and Ollie Schniederjans.
1u - Scott Piecy To Win @+5000
1u - Scott Piecy To Finish Top 5 @+1100