Sedgefield is one of those tracks that lends itself to the punter when there are specific areas of the game that are rewarded here each year. The short par 70 requires tee to green excellence and those who can keep the ball in the fairway to attack the pins. Those who have managed a win here have all ranked high in the accuracy and greens in regulation stats. Proximity to the hole is another stat to look to and those who have the ability to go very low must be given a chance here as we look to scores of 20 under and beyond with a calm week.
The supporting cast to the tournament fav this week all have a number of negatives to their name. Spieth looks a lively sort to go well this week given he has five top 20s in his last 7 events and generally his form has been blown out of proportion. One good week with the driver and it'll be goodnight Irene the rest. I do think his price is a shade on the skinny side this week though and others are preferred. Morikawa is silly short given he comes here off the back of a win and a chunk less than half of Wolff's price doesn't look quite right. Casey has had one good finish here with 3rd in 2015 but getting involved at +2500 in an event which isn't the Valspar is ill advised.
I can't see many reasons why not to back Simpson this week. He was a 12/1 runner up last year coming with a wet sail to threaten the leader late on. His last 9 efforts here read 2-3-72-6-5-11-22-WIN-8. He loves this event and outside of the majors is arguably his most important. A love affair so great he has called one of his kids after the event. Second at last weeks WGC is equivalent to a strong win in this category and I think he'd be a fair bit shorter had he won in that company last week given this is one of his favourite haunts. Another runner up four starts ago is a sign of just hoe well he is going and no doubt rates the most in form golfer in the field and likely to go very well. With the place terms on offer it has to be a solid each way wager.
A few others appeal at tasty odds this week none more so than Chez Reavie. The 4th highest ranked golfer in the field and in the throws of his career best season rates a +4500 with generous terms in a few places. Reavie ranks 2nd in Driving Accuracy this season and 6th in Proximity to the hole which are two main stats I'm looking to this week. 27th at the St Jude last week was a respectable effort. He ticks many boxes for me but primarily I don't think he should be any bigger than 28/1 this week and the bookmakers tissue dictates this bet for me.
1.5u - Chez Reavie to win @ +4500
Similarly I think Cameron Smith has been underestimated. He wouldn't be one I'd necessarily look to to play well on a track such as this that demands a good deal of accuracy but the Australian is in fine form and one of the more talented sorts on the tour yet to get off the mark. There have been plenty of first time winners at this event down the years and if one were to break through again Smith would be top of my list. 20th at Portrush was somewhat of a disappointment with a final round of 76 sending him tumbling down the board. Nevertheless it was another solid result and barring a 3rd round 73 last week he would have been in the mix on the final day of the WGC also. Despite not having the exact credentials I'd like on this track he remains overpriced with only 7 golfers ranked higher than him in this field. The 50/1 has disappeared unfortunately and so has a bit of the value, +4000 still worth a play.
1u - Cameron Smith to win @ +4000
Scott Piercy is a very streaky golfer who can score extremely well on these birdie fest layouts and is worth chancing at a top price of +6500 this week. He has an 8th and 12th placed finish here so can go well. An opening 62 lats time out at the 3M Open was spectacular and a sign of just how low he can go. He won the 2012 Canadian in a socre of 17 under and the year previous won the Reno at 15 under. Recently he finished 2nd at the Byron Nelson with a score of 21 under. Numerous other appearances down the years have resulted in him going well at tracks that require really low numbers and he may be overpriced to do the same again here this week. 3rd at the Heritage was a sign of what he can do on the tighter tracks also so this may just be a marriage made in heaven this week.
1u - Scott Piercy to win @ +6500
Finally Abraham Ancer looks a spot of value given he ranks high in a number of stats this week I find important. 15th in DA and inside the top 20 in Proximity and Par 4 scoring should give him an advantage at Sedgefield. With four top 5 finishes last year I thought he may have progressed quicker but he is yet to gain his maiden victory and Sedgefield opens up the opportunity. 8th at the Travelers was an impressive result and a trip to Lahinch was beneficial finishing 19th in a solid field. Overall a win may not be too far away for the Mexican and with some of his best performances coming on the tighter tracks I think he is worth a play.
0.75u - Abraham Ancer to win @ +6800