BMW PGA Championship Preview & Picks

Who should you bet on for the BMW Championship?
Stephen Rodriguez
Tue, September 17, 10:46 AM EDT

The BMW PGA Championship has moved from its traditional slot in May to a new date in September and been rewarded with one of the strongest fields in the tournament’s history.

Francesco Molinari is the defending champion and world number two Rory McIlroy leads the betting, but they will face tough competition at Wentworth, where qualification points for the 2020 Ryder Cup are up for grabs for the first time.

Here are five contenders who could be in contention for the title on Sunday:

Rory McIlroy

Odds to win: +550

McIlroy enters the tournament as the clear favorite in the outright betting and deservedly so, having enjoyed plenty of joy despite a lack of success in the majors.

The Northern Ireland native began the year with five consecutive top-six finishes before winning his first event of 2019 at the Players Championship in March.

More recently, he landed the FedEx Cup for a second time by winning the Tour Championship at East Lake so heads back across the Atlantic full of confidence.

The best bet for McIlroy could be to take him to finish in the top 10 at -121. There’s a decent chance he wins this event outright but even when not at his best, he managed two top-10 finishes in majors this year so that looks a solid selection.

Jon Rahm

Odds to win: +1100

Rahm is second in the BMW PGA Championship outright betting this week and is aiming for his third win of 2019.

The world number six won his first PGA Tour tournament of the year in April along with Ryan Palmer at the Zurich Classic, while he also placed third at the US Open. His fine form continued at the Irish Open in July when he shot a 62 in the final round to claim the title for the second time in three years.

The anticipation is that Rahm will find himself behind the pack early on. The best bet may be to wait on his odds to lengthen further and then sprinkle a low-risk high-reward wager on him later into the week.

Justin Rose

Odds to win: +1600

The former world number one has had a quiet 2019 but could use the BMW PGA Championship as his coming out party.

Rose, who now ranks fourth in the world, had his best finish of the year at the US Open when he tied with Rahm for third place.

Rose has enjoyed 12 European Tour wins during his career but has missed out on the BMW PGA Championship, having finished as runner-up in 2007 and 2012. It would not be a surprise if he got his first win of 2019 at Wentworth, a course he knows well having grown up just 30 minutes away.

Francesco Molinari

Odds to win: +2700

The reigning champion heads into the week as a dark horse to repeat last year’s success when he beat McIlroy by two shots to take the title.

The Italian ranks ninth in the world and has had a strong 2019 despite failing to reach the heights of 2018. Molinari won the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March and was the 54-hole leader at the Masters before finishing tied for fifth (his best career finish).

Molinari looks to have been underestimated in the betting and appeals at odds of +2700 at a course where he has happy memories.

Patrick Reed

Odds to win: +2800

Europeans dominate the BMW PGA Championship betting but if you’re looking for an American winner then either Reed or Tony Finau look the best hopes and at slightly longer odds, Reed looks the best value.

He sits at 17th in the world and although he has been relatively quiet this year, he has enjoyed one victory thanks to his success at The Northern Trust last month, with a self-imposed three-week break from the game in May and June seemingly paying off.

The 2018 Masters champion was also tied for 15th at the KLM Open in the Netherlands last week and this will be his third successive European Tour event so he could be worth a small stake.

Stephen Rodriguez
TinoRodriguez__
Expert handicapper for both NBA and NCAAB with years of experience in the business
Mar 2020
Record
Wins
13
Losses
15
Push
0
ROI
-11.62%
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