US Open Men’s Tennis Picks: Can Anyone Deny Djokovic Rewriting History?

Apart from the runaway favorite Novak Djokovic to win the US Open, should bettors consider outside bets or longshots for their US Open Men’s Pick?
Nikki Adams
Sun, August 29, 8:51 AM EDT

US Open Men’s Tennis Picks: Can Anyone Deny Djokovic Rewriting History?

The fourth and final grand slam is almost upon us. Set to take center court at the betting exchange this week, the action gets underway around the ATP and WTA fields on Monday, August 30. Although three of the game’s biggest stars—Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Serena Williams— are absent, along with last year’s men’s champion Dominic Thiem, there’s no shortage of converging storylines at Flushing Meadows this year.

On the men’s side, the narrative is dominated by World No.1 Novak Djokovic, who enters the men’s game as the indisputable favorite according to US Open Men’s odds and, arguably, the top bet amongst tennis fans. Djokovic Odds underscore what the Serbian starlet is trying to accomplish at Flushing Meadows over the next fortnight: to become the first ATP player in the Open Era to win a calendar Grand Slam since Rod Laver accomplished it (1962 and 1969) and to move ahead of both Federer and Nadal in the Grand Slam count by winning an astonishing 21st major title. Heady thought, indeed.

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ATP US Open Odds and Picks

US Open betting starts and ends with Novak Djokovic. It’s the way the markets shape up as they install Djokovic as the runaway favorite in minus money,

Tennis Player US Open Odds Implied Probability
Novak Djokovic -139 58.2%
Daniil Medvedev +425 19%
Alexander Zverev +600 14.3%
Stefanos Tsitsipas +1000 9.1%
Andrey Rublev +3300 2.9%

Click here for complete US Open odds

Djokovic To Complete Calendar Grand Slam?

Djokovic is the reigning titleholder at each of this year’s Grand Slams – the Australian Open, French Open and The Wimbledon Championships. In winning Wimbledon, Djokovic drew level with Federer and Nadal on 20 Grand Slam titles, thereby demonstrating just how dominant the ‘Big Three’ in the men’s game has been over the last two decades and, to some extent, still is. Alas, Federer and Nadal will miss this year’s US Open with injuries, leaving Djokovic bereft of his biggest rivals and two of the most consistent bets in Grand Slam bettingespecially Nadal, who won this title in 2019 but skipped the chance to defend it in 2020 due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

With the absence of Federer and Nadal, the advantage for Djokovic to win a historical 21st Grand Slam and complete the calendar Grand Slam in one fell swoop is huge. Indeed, he registers as the runaway favorite on the tennis odds board with tennis odds priced at -150.

It’s not as if the men’s game is devoid of any competition, but beating Djokovic – or any of the Big Three, for that matter – in a major final is nigh impossible. Indeed, the only player outside of the ‘Big Three’ to have beaten Djokovic in a major final since 2014 is Stanislas Wawrinka. The Swiss has a rare 2-0 record against his Serbian counterpart in finals, which is a winning record that nobody else boasts.

All eyes will be on Djokovic in New York as he attempts to rewrite history. He thrives under pressure, even welcomes it. He’s won the three majors in the lead-up to US Open and brings a 21-0 win-loss record. He’s gone 8-2 against Top 10 players this season and he’s 38-5 on the year. There is concern about a shoulder injury he’d sustained during the Tokyo Olympics, but it’s not stopped him from competing in New York. So, it might really be much ado about nothing.

The wide consensus of opinion has Djokovic as the likely winner in New York. For that reason, betting on Djokovic US Open odds is heating up. For those that believe Djokovic is the best bet, tickling his odds now before they swell further is highly recommended. His odds will only shorten further as the tournament gets going. For those that fancy being a bit more adventurous with their tennis picks though, the next section covers a few top bets and dangerous floaters to spot in the stacked men’s field.

Three Players That Could Win The Men’s US Open

World No.4 Alexander Zverev orchestrated an upset over Novak Djokovic en route to the gold medal at the Tokyo Olympics. It was a stunning feat that saw the German come from behind to clinch the 1-6, 6-3, 6-1 victory in the semis. Most recently, he backed up his gold medal with the Cincinnati Masters title (d. Andrey Rublev 6-2, 6-3).

Zverev is the most informed player in the men’s game right now and comes in as the third-best bet at +550. By all accounts, he may be the value bet in the draw, although he falls into the same half as Djokovic. This means he would need to get past the Serbian starlet in the semis in his bid for a first-ever Grand Slam title. There is no tougher assignment at the majors.

Zverev was a finalist at the 2020 US Open but he lost to Thiem. In fact, Zverev was up two sets on the Austrian before the wheels came undone. Zverev is 38-11 on the year with 4 titles. He improves to a 3-6 H2H record against Djokovic and a 1-1 record in 2021. Djokovic has a 2-0 edge over Zverev in majors, including the 2021 Australian Open quarterfinals, 6-7 (6), 6-2, 6-4, 7-6 (6).

World No.2 Daniil Medvedev is the second-best bet after Djokovic to win the title. The Russian is priced at +350 to win his first-ever Grand Slam title, a function of falling into the opposite side of the draw. This means Medvedev won’t come across Djokovic until the final, should the draw play out according to the seeding.

Medvedev trails Djokovic 3-5 lifetime, which includes a straight-set loss at the Australian Open finals this year. Although Medvedev has beaten Djokovic on a hard court, he’s failed at the time of asking in major matches. He’s 0-2 in Grand Slam play against the Serbian. Having said that the 25-year-old Russian sports a solid 40-10 record this season with three titles. Most recently, he won the Rogers Cup in Canada by beating Reilly Opelka 6-4, 6-3 in the final.

Finally, World No. 3 Stefanos Tsitsipas rounds out the top three contenders in the draw outside of Djokovic. Although the Greek star is priced at a hefty +800 to win the US Open title, he’s in the second half of the draw alongside Medvedev which is an advantage in itself. Tsitsipas is on form this season with a 48-14 record and 2 titles. He boasts a 2-6 record against Djokovic, which includes losing to the Serbian at the French Open final this year. He did put in a commendable effort and gave Djokovic a run for his money before the Serbian stormed back to win the five-set marathon 6-7(6), 2-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4.

Outside of Djokovic, the aforementioned three players represent some of the best bets to finally break through on the Grand Slam stage. They’ve been knocking on the door, waiting patiently for their opportunity for glory. If one of this trio could pull it off, it’s Zverev. He has the most recent win over Djokovic. Moreover, having to face Djokovic in the semis might be an advantage over having to try to beat him in the final. In short, beating Djokovic in the semis would mean it’s his title to win or lose. And he was ever so close last year.

Overall, Djokovic is the popular bet, the favorite, and the player most tennis experts and aficionados would predict to win the 2021 US Open. But with tennis odds of -150, the value is minuscule. Fortune favors the brave, so they say. Well, Zverev at +600 isn’t crazy value but the bet offers much better value nevertheless and, perhaps even, it will prove to be the value US Open Men's pick when all is said and done at Flushing Meadows.

Click here for complete US Open odds

US Open Men’s Picks

Zverev @ +600

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