US Open Women’s Odds: Barty & Osaka Headline A Wide Open Draw

Books set up the Women’s US Open as a two-horse race between Ashleigh Barty and Naomi Osaka, but is there better value elsewhere? Find out as we weigh in on the women’s draw and serve up alternative bets to consider.
Nikki Adams
Sun, August 29, 9:28 AM EDT

US Open Women’s Odds: Barty & Osaka Headline A Wide Open Draw

The fourth and final grand slam, the US Open, is set to get underway this week and it’s a star-studded cast that has assembled at Flushing Meadows. Reigning US Open champion Naomi Osaka is gunning for her fifth major title while current World No.1 Ashleigh Barty is eyeing her third major title. And in the wings, there’s a healthy blend of former Grand Slam champions and young hopefuls seeking their first major title, all of which strike an attractive pose in the betting.

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WTA US Open Odds & Picks

Unlike the men’s game, the women’s game is wide open. Although there are several established contenders, which are examined below, the rest of the field can’t be discounted either. That means, in no uncertain terms, there’s value to be had in the betting here and several standout US Open Women’s Picks to Spot.

Tennis Player US Open Odds Implied Probability
Ashleigh Barty +450 18.2%
Naomi Osaka +600 14.3%
Aryna Sabalenka +1400 6.7%
Iga Swiatek +1700 5.6%
Karolina Pliskova +1700 5.6%

Click here for complete US Open Women's odds

Osaka To Bounce Back?

Japan’s Naomi Osaka comes in as the defending US Open champion, but the four-time Grand Slam champion is struggling on form recently. She pulled out of the French Open and opted out of The Wimbledon Championships due to mental health issues. She made her comeback onto the WTA Tour at the Tokyo Olympics where she was a heavy favorite to win gold. Unfortunately, she was eliminated prematurely in the R16 (l. to Vondrousova). Since then, Osaka has one featured and one other event – the Western & Southern Open in Cincy. She was dismissed in the R16 on the heels of an upset by Switzerland’s Jil Teichmann. 

Undoubtedly, Osaka is a proven grand slam champion and the most winningest player in the women’s game at the majors since she won her first-ever Grand Slam title at the US Open three years ago. On the strength of her past accomplishments, she’s a value bet at +600 to win the US Open this year. And if she can get a few solid matches under her belt in the first few rounds, she’s certainly going to prove a value bet to win her fifth major title. That said the second half of the draw that includes Osaka is absolutely loaded with big hitters, past champions and dangerous floaters. It’s going to be a challenge for Osaka to emerge from this section of the draw, especially if her confidence is low. Thus, bearing in mind her edge over the field isn’t as sharp as it usually is, betting on Osaka US Open Odds alone might be a risk. Other bets are worth considering if only to hedge the chance of winning.

Barty On Form

World No. 1 Ashleigh Barty is enjoying another great season and comes into the US Open on good form after picking up the Cincy title. Earlier this summer, Barty won her second career grand slam title at Wimbledon. On the season, Barty sports an impressive 40-7 record and 5 titles. She’s a perfect 5-0 in finals this season, which is quite the ringing endorsement, especially if she does make it all the way to the final at Flushing Meadows. Not for nothing, therefore, Barty is favored over Osaka in the betting. Ashleigh Barty US Open odds are tipped at +350.

Underscoring Barty’s odds is the fact that she’s in the top half of the draw, which looks to be the lighter section at first glance. It’s still got big talent within, make no mistake. Players like American Jennifer Brady, gold medalist Belinda Bencic, former US Open runner-up Karolina Pliskova and former Us Open champion Biana Andreescu, to name a few, are potential stumbling blocks on the road to the finals. But no player is more confident than Barty is right now, so she’ll fancy her chances regardless.

The Contenders

Aryna Sabalenka and Karolina Pliskova are two of the game’s biggest hitters and two dangerous floaters in the draw that could potentially enjoy a breakthrough at the 2021 US Open. Sabalenka has yet to reach a major final, but she did make her first-ever semi-final appearance at the 2021 Wimbledon Championships. Pliskova, on the other hand, has reached the US Open final previously (l. to Angelique Kerber). Both are priced in quadruple digits on the US Open Odds board, at +1200 and +1400 respectively.

The Floaters, Sleepers and Longshots

Unlike the men’s game, the women’s game has shown a level of parity that makes the betting unpredictable. In short, the women’s title is essentially up for grabs. While the top four bets (listed above) are sound options for US Open Picks, all it would take for the draw to bust wide open is for either (or all) to meet with an upset early. In which case, there are several contenders, sleepers and longshots that could capitalize in each section of the draw.

Most notably, a few major champions might be worth a tickle because experience can be key in the race to a major title. Those include former US Open champion and three-time Grand Slam champion Angelique Kerber (+3300) to last year’s French Open champion Iga Swiatek (+1600). Elsewhere, reigning Roland Garros queen Barbora Krejcikova (+1800), former two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova (+3300) and former two-time Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka (+4000) are bets worth considering too.

Dangerous floaters that are enjoying a great season include gold medalist Belinda Bencic (+3300), Czech rising stars Marketa Vondrousova (+5000) and Karolina Muchova (+6600). Americans Jennifer Brady (+5000) and Jessica Pegula (+4000) are also bets worth considering given the home advantage factor. Brady recently reached the Australian Open final where she lost a cracking match to Naomi Osaka. It was the second competitive showdown between the pair at a major after Osaka edged Brady in three sets at the US Open semis on route to her (then) third grand slam title.

All told, the women’s game is a right tossup for US Open Women’s Picks: Any one of these aforementioned players or those not mentioned in this column could emerge into the final. As the US Open odds suggest, the top two bets are Barty and Osaka, with inform Sabalenka and Pliskova as legitimate contenders. To be fair, bettors could do no wrong backing any one of this quartet. However, if one player could surprise at the US Open, then Karolina Muchova, springs to mind.

The rising Czech star beat Barty at the Australian Open quarterfinals this year before succumbing to a three straight loss to Jennifer Bardy in the semis. She beat Naomi Osaka at the Madrid Open later in spring as well, making her one of few players to have bested either player this season. Moreover, Muchova has other Top 10 wins to her credit, including a win over her compatriot Karolina Pliskova at the Aussie Open. This month, Muchova beat former US Open champion Bianca Andreescu at the Western & Southern Open. However, she did sustain an abdominal injury and was forced to pull out of her next-round match with Belinda Bencic.

Muchova is a player on the rise in the WTA rankings and one that plays, arguably, some of her best tennis on faster surfaces such as hard courts. She’s a longshot bet to win the 2021 US Open, but therein lies the appeal. She’s one of the least likely to win and barely even registers on anyone’s radar. Four of the last seven champions in the women’s game have come seemingly out of nowhere, from Bianca Andreescu (2019 US Open), Sofia Kenin (2020 Australian Open), Iga Swiatek (2020 French Open) and Barbora Krejcikova (2021 French Open) have all won maiden majors. The remaining three titles were split by Naomi Osaka (2) and Ashleigh Barty.  

Click here for complete US Open odds

US Open Women’s Picks

Karolina Muchova @ +6600

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