US Open Tennis Predictions: Two Picks & A Parlay To Start Day 1
The final Grand Slam of the year is here and while there will be a full-capacity crowd for the first time since the pandemic started, the courts and conditions will be similar to the ones last year. That being said, it’s forecasted to cool down a bit over the course of the week, but players will face hot (up to 85°F) and humid conditions in their first-round matches.
Camila Giorgi vs. Simona Halep Prediction
A player that usually thrives in these kinds of conditions is Simona Halep. This time around, things look a bit more complicated for the Romanian though. After retiring with a calf injury in Rome, Halep only came back on tour in Montreal two and a half weeks ago. A loss against Collins was followed by a three-set win over Magda Linette, but after that, she wasn’t able to compete in her second-round match in Cincinnati. I’m not sure when we last saw outright odds of +3300 on the former world #1, but I’m not slightly tempted to bet her, even at that number.
On the contrary, Camila Giorgi is about the toughest first-round opponent one could draw. The Italian was playing some of the best tennis of her career in Montreal, winning the title, beating Mertens, Podoroska, Kvitova, Gauff, Pegula and Pliskova along the way. She can be hot and cold, but with her power, Giorgi won’t give Halep too much rhythm, which would be vital for the Romanian to build some confidence. With some rather big question marks about Halep’s fitness, my first pick of Day 1 will be Camila Giorgi, who has the game to beat anyone and whose confidence should be pretty high after winning the title in Montreal.
Pick: Camila Giorgi @ +100
Kamil Majchrzak vs. Emil Ruusuvuori Prediction
On the men’s side, the matchup between Kamil Majchrzak and Emil Ruusuvuori should be a fun one, not only for the responsible umpire. The Finn is coming off a semifinal run in Winston-Salem, only losing to the eventual winner Ilya Ivashka. That being said, he had a quicker turnaround than his first-round opponent here in New York even though Majchrzak had to qualify for the main draw. The Pole didn’t lose a single service game in qualifying and spent an average of 1 hour and 6 minutes on court during his wins against Ferreira Silva, Wolf and Rodionov.
To me, the fair line should be a little closer here with Majchrzak competing well in New York and already being familiar with the conditions. If he can keep up his serve over best of five, this could be a close contest. Therefore, I’m betting Majchrzak on the +3.5 games spread.
US Open Parlay
Daniel Taro ML @ -172
Coco Gauff ML @ -333
2-Leg Parlay @ +107
As is the case in majors more like in other tournaments, there are a lot of heavy favorites during the first few rounds. Nevertheless, some of these can be of value as well.
In four meetings, Taro Daniel never lost to Facundo Bagnis, who hasn’t won a main draw match on (outdoor) hard courts since March 2017. There’s not a much bigger point to make and even though Daniel prefers clay courts as well, he’s far more comfortable on hards, winning 55% of his career matches compared to Bagnis’s 35%. Heat and humidity shouldn’t be an issue for the Japanese either as he regularly outlasts his opponents.
It's been two years now since Coco Gauff burst onto the scene at both Wimbledon and the US Open. Since then, the now 17-year-old has progressed a lot and is actually growing into a serious contender. Her serve has improved a lot this year and she’s much more patient in rallies. Losses against a redlining Giorgi and Naomi Osaka this North American hard court swing don’t make me re-evaluate her chances and even though Linette reached the semis in Cleveland, the only match she impressed me in was the one against Daria Kasatkina. If Gauff is anywhere close to her best, she should come out on top - and might be one to watch this upcoming fortnight.