US Open Tennis Predictions: Round 2 Thursday
We've seen a lot more tennis than we thought yesterday, and much of it was to our liking. Masarova just covered 6.5 games, and it was a close contest between Vondrousova and Kasatkina. Unfortunately, just my expectation of Ruusuvuori was way off as he was blown off the court by Bautista Agut, who, for anyone interested in midweek futures, looks excellent on these quick US Open courts. But for now, let's see what Day 4 has to offer.
Katerina Siniakova vs. Maria Sakkari Prediction
Siniakova and Sakkari only meet at Grand Slams. Today will be their fourth matchup, and it will complete their "Head to Head Slam." After Sakkari won at Wimbledon back in 2017, it was Siniakova coming through in Australia and France. The Czech has always been a gifted player, but she's showing it a little more consistently for the first time. Her last five losses came against classy players in Kerber, Barty, Krejcikova, Sorribes Tormo, and Kontaveit. The two latter only beat her in three sets, and this is what I'm looking for again today.
Her Greek opponent is still revealing inconsistencies, overhitting, and just going for too much too early at times. Her first-round win against Kostyuk was solid, but Siniakova will ask some more questions. This match could end in close sets and or a tiebreak, but the value on the over 2.5 sets is just too big for me to pass.
Anett Kontaveit vs. Jil Teichmann Prediction
Expecting some of the same in the next matchup, I think the latest line movement makes Jil Teichmann the valuable choice against Anett Kontaveit. Both players surely enjoy the faster than anticipated courts and beat their first-round opponents with ease. While Kontaveit is coming fresh off a tournament win in Cleveland, Teichmann made the final at the highly decorated Western & Southern Open, only losing to world #1 Ash Barty.
The way the Swiss made it there has been even more remarkable. Naomi Osaka proved the only real test as Teichmann needed three sets to beat her. The scorelines against Cirstea, Pera, Bencic, and Pliskova: 6-2, 6-0, 6-1, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2, 6-4. Teichmann cannot be labeled a pure clay courter anymore as she gets better and better on (quick) hard courts. After struggling with injuries throughout the season, it's good to see her back in form, and therefore, I'm taking the 2.5 games spread currently on offer.
Jenson Brooksby vs. Taylor Fritz Prediction
In an all-American clash, 2019 breakout boy Brooksby takes on former junior #1 Taylor Fritz. While some bookmakers opened Brooksby the overwhelming favorite at -200, the odds shifted massively towards a pick 'em. Of course, this number might have to do with the 20-year-old being dead on his feet late in his match against Mikael Ymer. Then again, Fritz didn't look the fittest player either against a still (Covid-related?) struggling Alex De Minaur.
Brooksby looked more convincing in the leadup tournaments as he reached the semifinal in Washington, losing to eventual winner Jannik Sinner. Fritz, on the contrary, arrived in New York on a four-game losing streak. His last three defeats came against Kudla, Duckworth, and Ramos-Vinolas, who have lower Elo ratings than Brooksby. In my opinion, this line should be where it opened, so I'm taking advantage of the line movement, betting Jenson Brooksby to advance to round three of the US Open.
Round 2 Day 2 US Open Parlay
2-Leg Parlay (+225)
Taking a chance on a parlay again, I'm choosing Liudmila Samsonova and Nikoloz Basilashvili today. Both their games suit these quick courts, and while Minnen surprised with her first-round win against Podoroska, I still doubt she can keep up with the more talented players in this field. Samsonova indeed belongs in that category, and her opening win against Katie Boulter confirmed the excellent shape she's in. Losses against Sorribes Tormo and Azarenka in build-up tournaments aren't alarming at all, so I'm looking forward to the Russian making waves.
Maxime Cressy's win over Pablo Carreno Busta has been one of the more significant stories of the US Open thus far. The American came back from a two-set deficit and saved four match points in the final set tiebreak. However, I feel like today's line is a little too inflated because he beat the #9 seed. In qualifying, Cressy just about managed to get past Guido Andreozzi and Ruben Bemelmans. Losses against Darian King, Ilya Marchenko, and the present version of Feliciano Lopez can't convince me of a further run for Cressy, given that he's facing an in-form Basilashvili who's also much more rested as Sebastian Korda retired after just 45 minutes in their first-round encounter.
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