US Open Picks & Predictions: 4 Bets To Wager on Monday’s Action
We head into the second week of this year’s final Grand Slam which has been absolutely chaotic thus far. From an abundance of upsets to toilet break drama and a record-breaking number of upsets and five-set-matches, tennis fans got all their money’s worth. Today, the round of 16 will be completed on both the men’s and women’s side as we look for value in the betting markets.
Stosur/Zhang vs. Aoyama/Shibahara Prediction
Let’s start things off with a doubles match between two teams that are capable of going all the way to the title. I already talked about Stosur/Zhang’s current run in Friday’s preview and they got another straight sets win against Kato/Santamaria. Both pairings won their final leadup-tournament before getting here without dropping a set. That being said, this will be the first real test for them as the quality in opposition just hasn’t been there yet.
While I could see a very close contest, the bookmakers have the Japanese as the rather big favorite. If this match was to be played earlier in the year, I would have agreed with Aoyama/Shibahara arguably being the hottest team in women’s doubles and Stosur/Zhang splitting for the time being. However, now that they are back together, the 2019 Australian Open champs are on a roll again. They work together well and I have them winning this matchup around 45% of the time rather than the 36% suggested by the books.
Pick: Stosur/Zhang @ +175 with bet365
Reilly Opelka vs. Lloyd Harris Prediction
Do we need to talk about Reilly Opelka’s serve? I don’t think so. He’s close to 10 aces per set this tournament, but for a player of his height, his movement is damn good. Nevertheless, all will come down to a few key moments in today’s match against Lloyd Harris. The South African is also serving well and his attacking play scored him wins over Karen Khachanov and Denis Shapovalov.
With both players being on top of their game, this should be another tight match, as the odds suggest. Initially, I was looking to add the over 3.5 sets market in a parlay, but after checking the numbers again, that -200 doesn’t hold enough value compared to the +250 we can get on the over 4.5 sets. If this match goes to a fourth set, it simply means the player trailing would be +133 to send this to a fifth. Barring injuries or any unexpected circumstances, that’s a number I would always be willing to take in a close matchup like this. The games total has been a look for me as well, but while I do expect tiebreaks, the odds are a little too juiced now, which is why I rather go for the bigger odds in case one of the two has an off day.
Pick: Over 4.5 sets @ +250 with bet365
Shelby Rogers vs. Emma Raducanu Prediction
Both Shelby Rogers and Emma Raducanu turned the tennis world upside down with their third round victories. While Raducanu shocked Sara Sorribes Tormo (and us) with a flawless performance from start to finish, Rogers pulled the biggest upset of week one, knocking off the world #1 and tournament favorite Ash Barty in a third set tiebreak.
A good serve is the key to victory for both players, who couldn’t ask for a better surface to compete on this fortnight. Raducanu only allowed three breaks across her three first round matches and while that simply wasn’t possible for Rogers facing Barty, the American’s second serve is rock-solid so far. It often presents opportunities for the returner, especially in the women’s game, however Rogers is winning close to 60% of the points on her second serve. Now I don’t want to make the same mistake over and over again, opposing one of the players I rate highly myself, but I do expect a serve-orientated match where I target the games total as a 5-5 set shouldn’t be ruled out.
Pick: Over 21.5 games @ -114 with Unibet
Maria Sakkari vs. Bianca Andreescu Prediction
Another player I changed my view on during the first week is Bianca Andreescu. After opposing her in her first match, which almost paid off nicely, the 2019 winner is looking dangerous again. Yes, Lauren Davis and Greet Minnen are no world beaters, but we haven’t seen Andreescu win three matches in a row since Miami. Speaking of Miami, that’s where the young Canadian also beat today’s opponent, Maria Sakkari in their first and only head to head.
Sakkari’s numbers look sublime. The Greek didn’t even have to go to 5-5 once in her straight set wins over Kostyuk, Siniakova and Kvitova. Solely based on these performances, Sakkari is the justified favorite in tonight’s final match. However, there’s a snag to it. Before this year’s French Open, Sakkari didn’t make the quarterfinal of a major, and that’s not because she’s not talented enough, but because she starts thinking when a match gets tight. Her semifinal loss to Barbora Krejcikova in Paris is a prime example for that as she blew a match point at 5-3 in the third and failed to serve it out afterwards. This play is not based on talent levels or form, but if you give me a fierce competitor like Andreescu at a number that high against a player that gets tight in close situations, I’m willing to take the risk.
Pick: Bianca Andreescu @ +132 with FanDuel