US Open Picks and Predictions: Eyes on Three Matches and a Parlay for Tuesday's Action
As exciting as these US Open are, as frustrating it is betting on them. Yesterday started well with that +175 doubles winner, but Emma Raducanu made me look silly again. Shelby Rogers never really looked into it and later admitted that her “tank was a little bit empty.” The same can be said about Reilly Opelka, who was outplayed badly from the baseline after winning the first set in a tiebreak. The most vicious loss was the late-night match which was there for the taking for Bianca Andreescu as she had breakpoints in both the Sakkari service games at 7-6 4-4* and 7-6 5-5*. Had she used one of these three chances, the match might have been over as the Greek was struggling again mentally. Andreescu then was two points from victory at 6-6 in the second set tiebreak after Sakkari got even tighter, blowing three set points in a row. Her fitness decided the match as Andreescu had to leave the court and could barely walk during the third set. It is what it is, and we move on to today.
Dolehide/Sanders vs. Stosur/Zhang Prediction
Just as yesterday, we start the day off with the women’s doubles pairing of Samantha Stosur and Zhang Shuai. We beat the closing line well, and they more or less led for the entire match against Aoyama/Shibahara. To my surprise, they opened as the underdogs again today, facing Caroline Dolehide and Storm Sanders. The American/Australian duo is on quite some Grand Slam run, making it to the semis at Wimbledon and now bidding for the same again at the US Open. They changed partners between these two majors, but that did not prevent them from doing well again here.
Looking at just the scorelines, their first two wins look impressive. However, I rate the win against Kudermetova and Mattek-Sands even higher. They lost to Kudermetova, who then teamed up with compatriot Elena Vesnina at Wimbledon, blowing a 5-2 third-set lead including three match points. And here is the thing, they might have learned from that, but until they prove it and with the experience Stosur and Zhang possess, I’ll always take the latter at pick’em odds. They already won a Grand Slam together, and with their reawakened form, my fair line is around -130.
Elina Svitolina vs. Leylah Fernandez Prediction
The quarterfinal stage is about to start in singles too, and besides Emma Raducanu, we have another teenage star shining through here in Leylah Fernandez. The 19-year-old Canadian doesn’t play as aggressively as her British counterpart, but she’s arguably the most versatile player among all these youngsters. Her tricky play already caught former US Open winners Naomi Osaka and Angelique Kerber off-guard as she beat them both in three sets.
Today, she’s challenging Elina Svitolina, and of course, she’s the underdog again. That role pretty much suits her, though, as just like the Ukrainian, she tries to get into rallies and take them over with her counterpunching style. With that game plan in mind, the player who has to dictate or is supposed to might lose control at some point, just like Kerber did two days ago. Fernandez has every shot in her repertoire, but her drop shot and slicing especially will be important today. If she can hand over the initiative to Svitolina, the #5 seed might produce some unusual unforced errors as dictating just is not her cup of tea. The two faced off once before when Svitolina beat Fernandez 6-4 7-5 in Monterrey one and a half years ago. Svitolina went on to win that tournament, and although she’s in stellar form again these days, Fernandez has made an even more significant step forward since. To me, this match is closer than the odds suggest, and I’m happy to take the 4.5 games spread on the young Canadian.
Johnson/Querrey vs. Krawietz/Tecau Prediction
This men’s doubles match should quite simply be closer to even money. Krawietz and Tecau have a better (doubles) record on clay, while the Americans thrive on hard courts. Both teams had some quality wins already here in New York and, you read that right, didn’t lose serve once in their opening three matches. That being said, this should more or less be a coin flip, so with Johnson and Querrey serving even more prominent and the crowd may be helping a bit as well, I’m taking a shot on the Americans.
Pick: Johnson/Querrey (+135)
Day 9 Parlay
Parlay Odds (+160)
Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Nicolas Mahut achieved everything doubles players could dream of. All four Grand Slams have been won by the French, who also helped winning their country the Davis Cup in 2017. Now one could argue that the pair isn’t hungry for success anymore, but a third set tiebreak win over Daniell/Demoliner and a comeback win over Golubev/Mies prove otherwise. Peers/Polasek are a gifted team, but their leadup to the US Open has been a little shaky with losses against De Minaur/Millman, Bublik/Garin, and De Minaur/Norrie. In my opinion, this is a generous line on the more experienced doubles team who, despite a bit of drop in form, are still classy and clutch when it matters.
The first match of today’s night session will be the second women’s quarterfinal between Barbora Krejcikova and Aryna Sabalenka. Krejcikova’s match against Garbine Muguruza caused some extreme controversy. However, I did feel the Czech had some actual stomach issues. It never looks great when you come back from a medical blasting winners past your opponent, but winning the second has kind of been her last straw. Either way, I’m curious to see whether she’s able to recover in time. Sabalenka got better and better from match to match and only allowed one break in her wins against Zidansek, Collins, and Mertens. If Krejcikova is at 100%, this should be a beauty to watch, however with her health still being a concern; I’m taking the red-hot Belarusian to get through to the semis.
Pick: Herbert/Mahut (-152) + Aryna Sabalenka (-176) ( +160)
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