US Open Picks and Predictions: Eyes on Today's Semifinal Matches Where There's Value Everywhere
Leylah Annie Fernandez and Emma Raducanu really made it all the way, and we'll have two teenagers fighting for a major title for the first time since the US Open 1999. Today, the men will bid for a place in the final as Felix Auger-Aliassime challenges Daniil Medvedev during the day, and Alexander Zverev tries to repeat his Olympic upset over Novak Djokovic at Grand Slam level. The men's doubles final will take place first on Arthur Ashe, and we'll also have women's and mixed doubles semifinal action.
Stosur/Zhang vs. Guarachi/Krawczyk Prediction
That directly leads me to the only players I could figure out this fortnight, Samantha Stosur and Zhang Shuai. In today's semifinal, the two haven't lost a set so far as they take on Alexa Guarachi and Desirae Krawczyk. For once, Stosur/Zhang are the favorites. However, I still think they are the value side in this one. Guarachi/Krawczyk beat some solid duos, but none of them were on the level of Aoyama/Shibahara or Dolehide/Sanders, who got beaten in straight sets by Stosur and Zhang. I hope the two will keep this run-up as I sprinkle a little on the -1.5 sets alongside the moneyline bet.
Pegula/Krajicek vs. Krawczyk/Salisbury Prediction
Pegula/Krajicek vs. Krawczyk/Salisbury Odds
Both Desirae Krawczyk and Joe Salisbury will have to play twice today in what is kind of a weird scheduling. The other mixed doubles semifinal already took place two days ago, and Salisbury especially might have his eyes set on the men's doubles final today. So this could be anticlimactic for both of them. Nevertheless, while mixed matches are the toughest to predict, I'm happy to get plus money odds on two Americans that beat three-class pairings thus far in Hradecka/Kubot, Shibahara/McLachlan, and Guarachi/Skupski.
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Daniil Medvedev Prediction
Daniil Medvedev exceeded the already large expectation people had for him this fortnight. The 2019 runner-up only lost one set so far, and a money line rollover on him to get here paid an absurd line of -900-ish. Today, he sits right around -600, so books and the market have no doubt he'll end up in the final again.
While I do not disagree with that, the price has become a little too juiced for me right now. Sure, Medvedev owns the matchup on this surface as flat hitters have been treated well at this year's US Open, but it's Auger-Aliassime's serve that should keep him in sets. The Canadian hit the most aces of the four remaining players and should have fresh legs after Carlos Alcaraz retired at 6-3 3-1 in their quarterfinal.
Both Auger-Aliassime and Medvedev have won over 80% of their first-serve points, and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw at least one tiebreak today. With Medvedev having both the experience and mental edge - FAA lost all of his eight finals on tour and today's semifinal will be the biggest match of his career - I'm targeting the first set over as well as a prop on Medvedev to win and the match to go over 33.5 games.