Australian Open Opening Round Predictions: Djokovic’s Quarter is Wide Open

Australian Open Opening Round Predictions: Djokovic’s Quarter is Wide Open

The Men’s Australian Open draw looks a lot wider open after the Australian government canceled Novak Djokovic’s visa over his vaccination status. That is music to the ears of everyone in his quarter, particularly Matteo Berrettini and Carlos Alcaraz Garfia, who now have the best odds to make the semifinals. 

Both Berrettini and Alcaraz are in action today as the Australian Open gets started “down under” tonight. We preview our best bets from the men’s draw in the opening round of the Australian Open.

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Carlos Alcaraz Garfia to beat Alejandro Tabilo 3 Sets to None (+105) (Bet $100 to Win $105)

Alcaraz Garfia is a huge -600 moneyline favorite to beat Tabilo, and while he is not in jeopardy of losing this match, we cannot lay those steep odds for minimal return. Thus, the wiser play is for Alcaraz to win this match in straight sets.

These two players have met just once in their career in the 2021 French Open. Alcaraz cruised to a 6-1, 6-1 victory, with 25 winners compared to Tabilo’s seven. 

The 18-year old has beaten big names like Jannik Sinner and Andy Murray to this point, and his power will come through on Melbourne’s hard courts.

Matteo Berrettini vs. Brandon Nakashima OVER 39.5 Total Games (-115) (Bet $115 to Win $100)

While we like the young Alcaraz to cruise in his first-round matchup, his potential third-round opponent, Matteo Berrettini, will have to work for his opening-round win. This is Berrettini’s first-ever match against Nakashima, and Berrettini has lost four of his last five matches dating back to the quarterfinals at Vienna. Meanwhile, Nakashima has made at least the quarterfinals of his last four hard court tournaments and will not be an easy out tonight. With Nakashima likely to take at least one set from Berrettini, we like this match to exceed 39.5 total games.

Reilly Opelka vs. Kevin Anderson OVER 12.5 games in the First Set (+125) (Bet $100 to Win $125)

This first-round matchup is the most appealing if you like brute strength and big servers on the hard court surface. Taking the over on this bet essentially means we expect the first set to end in a tiebreak. And with each player’s serve nearly impossible to break, we expect them to each cruise through their first six service games each. 

Opelka and Anderson will look to trade aces and keep groundstrokes to a minimum. For what it is worth, Opelka has won the first set in each of his last nine ATP matches as a favorite. Thus, there is an opportunity for some live betting options if and when this gets to a tiebreak. In their only career meeting in Atlanta in 2016, Anderson won the first set in a tiebreak but lost the match after Opelka stormed back to win the next two sets.