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Tennis expert Mike Spector offers his three best bets for Thursday's action in the Men's Draw of the Third Round at the Australian Open.
ANALYSIS

Gael Monfils vs. Christian Garin and More: 2022 Australian Open Picks, Odds, and Best Bets

We are coming off our most profitable day of the tournament thus far, as our three Australian Open picks from yesterday cashed a +225 play, a +132 play, and a more straightforward -155 play for a plus-four unit day. 

So how can we capitalize on this momentum and keep the money rolling in? We preview our best bets from Thursday's Third Round Men's matches at the Australian Open.

Click Here For Australian Open Odds

Gael Monfils to Beat Christian Garin 3 Sets to 0 (-145) (Bet $145 to Win $100)

Click Here for Monfils vs Garin Odds

Both No. 17 seed Gael Monfils and No. 16 seed Christian Garin avoided upsets through the first two rounds to set up this intriguing Third Round matchup. However, Monfils has been the much more dominant player to this point, and we expect him to make quick work of Garin, even if they appear evenly matched based on seeding.

Monfils has lost just ten total games through six sets of the tournament thus far, while Garin was pushed to five sets in each of his first two matches. The grind of Garin's matches should carry over to today, and though he is ten years younger than his counterpart, Monfils has the clear advantage of spending just 2 hours and 27 minutes on the court to this point. Hardcourt is also not Garin's best surface, while Monfils has won six of his last seven hardcourt matches, including the Adelaide International earlier this year. Monfils did not drop a set in any of those previous six wins and will not do so tonight.

Sebastian Korda vs. Pablo Carreno Busta OVER 38.5 Games (-110) (Bet $110 to Win $100)

Click Here for Korda vs. Carreno-Busta Odds

Sebastian Korda still owns arguably the most stunning upset of the tournament to this point, not so much that he beat No. 12 seed Cameron Norrie, but that he did it in straight sets 6-3, 6-0, 6-4. Both Korda and Carreno Busta are coming off tough five-set victories in their last match, and each player had two of those sets decided by a tiebreak. That is an over bettor's dream and provided this match goes longer than three sets, we should cash this bet easily. 

Korda allowed 23 break point chances to Corentin Moutet in the last round, while Carreno Busta allowed Tallon Griekspoor to convert 6-of-13 break point chances in their five-set match. Though those numbers suggest that neither player is immune to getting their serve broken, it also bodes well for the over, seeing it is not as likely one of the players rides a dominant serve to a straight-set victory.

Miomir Kecmanovic to Beat Lorenzo Sonego (+145) (Bet $100 to Win $145)

Click Here for Kecmanovic vs Sonego Odds

With our one upset pick of the day, we are backing Kecmanovic to topple the No. 25 seed Sonego. Kecmanovic has been dominant through two rounds, not dropping a set despite being a sizable underdog to American Tommy Paul in the last round. Kecmanovic's return of serve has been outstanding to this point, breaking serve 11 times in the first two matches compared to four breaks he has surrendered through six sets. 

Sonego has won three of the four matches between these two, but two of those wins came on clay. When they met on grass (the surface closest to hardcourt), they dueled to two consecutive tiebreakers in the first two sets before Sonego won the third convincingly. However, with how well Kecmanovic is playing to this point, he is more than capable of narrowing the gap in this head-to-head rivalry, especially on a surface he is comfortable on. 

Kecmanovic has covered the game spread in three of his last four matches, and we like him to do so again en route to an outright victory.

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Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest

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