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Tennis expert Mike Spector breaks down his Saturday best bets from the Fourth Round of the Men's Draw at the Australian Open.
ANALYSIS

Alexander Zverev vs. Denis Shapovalov and More: 2022 Australian Open Picks, Odds, and Best Bets

The Fourth Round of the Australian Open begins tonight, and the remaining matches will only get more competitive as the tournament progresses. As such, bettors will not find as many egregious moneylines and will not have to get as creative with their wagers to turn a profit.

So what high-profile matchups are we targeting? Tonight's wagers involve a contrarian wager on an over/under on games played, a set betting prop, and a straight moneyline play.

We preview our best bets from Saturday's Fourth Round Men's matches at the Australian Open.

Click Here for Australian Open Odds

Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Gael Monfils OVER 36.5 Total Games (-110) (Bet $110 to win $100)

Click here for Kecmanovic vs Monfils odds

Picking the over on games played in a match involving Gael Monfils is risky, considering each of his last ten ATP main draw matches on hard court have gone under the total match games line. However, with how well Miomir Kecmanovic is serving and returning serve to this point, we expect him to push Monfils harder than he has been pushed through any of his first three matches in the tournament to this point. 

Kecmanovic entered his Third Round match having broken serve 11 times against his first two opponents and followed up with converting 6-of-13 break point chances in his last match against Lorenzo Sonego. And though Sonego had 13 break point opportunities of his own, he converted just two, suggesting that Kecmanovic navigated the most stressful points well.

Monfils has not dropped a set in any of his three matches to this point, but we expect Kecmanovic to earn at least one set victory. However, we have a buffer zone of still hitting this over even if the match finishes in straight sets if we get some tiebreakers or 7-5 results mixed in.

Alexander Zverev to Beat Denis Shapovalov 3 Sets to 1 (+230) (Bet $100 to win $230)

Click here for Zverev vs Shapovalov odds

The deeper we get into the tournament, the more likely it is that certain players will have plenty of matchup history between them. Zverev and Shapovalov have met six times dating back to 2017, with Zverev owning a 4-2 lead in the series. None of their five hard court matches have been at a Grand Slam, but two of their five matches went to a decisive third set. In addition, four of their 12 sets on hard court have gone to tiebreaks, which suggests Shapovalov can be competitive in this match. 

Despite Shapovalov winning two of the last three matches between these two, Zverev has won nine of his last ten matches overall, including wins over some of the sport's best players, Daniil Medvedev and Novak Djokovic. We trust Zverev's experience in Grand Slams to help him prevail, but Shapovalov is too talented to be beaten in straight sets.

Matteo Berrettini to Beat Pablo Carreno Busta (-235) (Bet $235 to win $100)

Click Here for Berrettini vs Carreno Busta odds

Matteo Berrettini arguably got his most challenging match in his quarter out of the way last round, with an epic five-set victory over Carlos Alcaraz Garfia. However, while Berrettini was an underdog in that match, he goes back to being a sizeable favorite over Carreno Busta, who has played nine sets through his last two matches against opponents inferior to Berrettini. 

Berrettini had tremendous success in the Grand Slams in 2021, reaching the quarterfinals in three of them and advancing to the Finals of Wimbledon. He is fit enough to navigate the demands of a Grand Slam, and the five-set grind of his last match does not sway us in backing him tonight. 

Article Author

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Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest

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