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Tennis expert Mike Spector breaks down his best bets for Monday's quarterfinal Men's action at the Australian Open.
ANALYSIS

Denis Shapovalov vs. Rafael Nadal and More: 2022 Men's Australian Open Quarterfinal Predictions, Picks, Odds, and Best Bets

The first two Men's quarterfinal matches at the Australian Open begin tonight. There are two fascinating matchups on hand as the experienced Rafael Nadal faces the young Denis Shapovalov amid his deepest run in Melbourne. In addition, Gael Monfils has not yet dropped a set on his path to the quarterfinals and looks to continue that stellar play against Matteo Berrettini.

With tonight's picks, we look at a set spread and a game spread in these two matches. Let's dive into our best bets for Monday's Quarterfinal Men's matches at the Australian Open.

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Rafael Nadal -1.5 sets vs. Denis Shapovalov (-130) (Bet $130 to Win $100)

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It was not so much a shock that Denis Shapovalov defeated Alexander Zverev to reach his first Australian Open quarterfinal, but he did it in straight sets. For a player that stands 6'1", his serve is explosive, as his first serve top speed was 137 mph, which matched the bigger Zverev. And the Canadian does not take much off his second serve, which was routinely clocked at triple digits. 

While Shapovalov attempts to make his second-ever Grand Slam semifinal (2021 Wimbledon), he faces Nadal, who has made the semifinals or better six times at the Australian Open. In addition, he has reached the semifinals or better in 29 other combined Grand Slams. As we have seen for more than the last decade, beating the top three men's players (Djokovic, Federer, Nadal) at a Grand Slam in a five-set match is no easy task and requires the utmost skill and concentration. 

Nadal has dropped just one set through his first four matches. In his last match against Adrian Mannarino, the Frenchman played the set of his life and pushed Nadal to a 26-point tiebreak before ultimately succumbing to Nadal's brilliance. We saw what mental toll losing that set took on Mannarino, as Nadal made quick work of him 6-2, 6-2 the rest of the match. 

The same could happen to the volatile Shapovalov, who does not yet have the mental fortitude to battle for five sets against a player with Nadal's caliber. To win this bet, Nadal has to win this match in three or four sets, and that is precisely what we believe will happen.

Gael Monfils +2.5 Games vs. Matteo Berrettini (-125) (Bet $125 to Win $100)

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Gael Monfils has been a tennis bettor's dream recently, not just because he has won eight of his previous nine matches, but because he has been highly consistent from a game spread and over/under a number of games. Monfils is a perfect 8-0 covering the game spread in his last eight matches, and his last eight matches have also gone under the projected total. Conversely, Berrettini has covered five of his previous seven game spreads, and the number of games played has gone over the projected total in four of his last seven matches.

Monfils has lost his two career matches against Berrettini (both on hard court), and Berrettini covered the game spread in both. However, Monfils' utter dominance in this tournament cannot be overlooked. At the same time, we expect Berrettini's tough battles against Alcaraz and Carreno Busta to finally catch up with him tonight.

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Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest

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