Jannik Sinner vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas and More: 2022 Men’s Australian Open Quarterfinal Predictions, Picks, Odds, and Best Bets
Jannik Sinner vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas and More: 2022 Men’s Australian Open Quarterfinal Predictions, Picks, Odds, and Best Bets
The Men's Australian Open semifinal matchups will be set after tonight's conclusion of the Quarterfinal Round. One could argue that these are the exact two matchups we expected to see to decide each of these quarters, save for perhaps Andrey Rublev's failure to make it past the Third Round.
We look at a game spread and a moneyline wager that presents value with tonight's picks. Let's dive into our best bets for Tuesday's Quarterfinal Men's matches at the Australian Open.
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Felix Auger-Aliassime +6.5 games vs. Daniil Medvedev (-135) (Bet $135 to Win $100)
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We have picked against Felix Auger-Aliassime twice this tournament, but the Canadian finally gets our betting respect in this quarterfinal matchup. Daniil Medvedev has won his last 11 Grand Slam main draw matches, so while we are not looking to take him on from a moneyline perspective, we see value in this game spread.
FAA has won at least one set in his last nine previous main draw matches at the Australian Open. Thus, if he can avoid a straight-set loss, winning a set would do wonders for his chances to cover this game spread. In addition, four of FAA's last five matches at the Australian Open have gone over the projected total games line. Thus, Auger-Aliassime is likely to push Medvedev and should avoid a lopsided 6-2 or 6-3 result that would be devastating for his chances to cover this spread.
Medvedev has not dropped a set to Auger-Aliassime in the two hard court matches they have played, but three of those five sets were decided by two games. Thus, even if FAA loses in straight sets, he would still cover the game spread if he remains competitive in each. However, the underdog has covered the game spread in Medvedev's last four main draw ATP matches, and we expect Auger-Aliassime to win at least one set, which significantly helps our chances of winning this bet.
Jannik Sinner to Beat Stefanos Tsitsipas (-140) (Bet $140 to Win $100)
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In yesterday's column, we picked Rafael Nadal's set spread line over Denis Shapovalov, citing the Spaniard's overall experience in Grand Slams to propel him to victory. However, with this wager, we are trumping that conventional wisdom and expect Jannik Sinner to break through to his first-ever semifinal at a Grand Slam event.
Sinner remained unbeaten in 2022 after a surprisingly easy straight-set victory in the last round over Alex de Minaur. The youngster hardly appeared nervous, as he calmly saved four break points in the opening set and won 75% of his first-serve points. Sinner completed the victory in just two hours and 35 minutes and has dropped just one set so far in this tournament. Sinner is building upon the momentum of 2021 that saw the 20-year old win four tour-level titles. He and fellow Italian Matteo Berrettini made the pair the second duo in the Open Era to reach the quarterfinals at a Grand Slam.
While Sinner has made his quarterfinal run look easy, Stefanos Tsitsipas was clearly drained in his post-match interview after defeating Taylor Fritz. That win took three hours and 23 minutes to complete, and it is fair to wonder what the Greek has left in the tank tonight. Though Tsitsipas has made the semifinals in Melbourne on two other occasions, we do not expect his experience to play a factor against an unnerved opponent.
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