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Tennis expert Mike Spector offers his best bet for the Men's Final at the 2022 Australian Open.

Daniil Medvedev vs. Rafael Nadal: 2022 Men’s Australian Open Final Predictions, Picks, Odds, and Best Bets

Much of the luster was taken out of the Men's Draw at the Australian Open when news broke that Roger Federer would not be competing, and Novak Djokovic was forced to withdraw over Visa issues. However, a final between Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev brings with it great intrigue in the absence of two of the sport's biggest stars.

Rafael Nadal is looking to break a three-way tie with Djokovic and Federer for his 21st Grand Slam title, which would be the most all-time. In addition, Daniil Medvedev is looking to make history of his own as the first Men's singles champion in the Open Era to win the next scheduled slam after winning their first Grand Slam title. 

With Medvedev as a pricey favorite (-205 moneyline odds), we offer another prop play with much better returning value. Let's dive into our best bets for Sunday's Men's Final at the Australian Open.

Daniil Medvedev vs. Rafael Nadal Prediction

Click here for Medvedev vs Nadal odds

Rafael Nadal will have to overcome a worrisome trend to break through for his record 21st Grand Slam. Nadal has lost each of his last four Australian Open Finals, while Medvedev has started strong in the biggest spots, winning the first set in five of his previous six ATP Finals. And while Nadal owns a 3-1 head-to-head record against Medvedev, there is no denying that the Russian has been building momentum for years and is in a great position to be the sport's next dominant star once "Father Time" catches up to the "Big Three."

While Medvedev has had the rockier path to get to the finals, dropping at least one set in four of his last five matches, his competition has arguably been much more formidable than Nadal's as well. Medvedev had to outlast two of the game's biggest servers in countryman Nick Kyrgios and Max Cressy, as well as Felix Auger-Aliassime and Stefanos Tsitsipas in the last two rounds. Conversely, Nadal's strengths (attacking a subpar backhand) played into the weaknesses of Matteo Berrettini, and he somewhat suspiciously changed the momentum in his match against Denis Shapovalov when he called a medical timeout entering the fifth set after losing the previous two.

Each of Medvedev's last five ATP finals on hard court has gone under the total match games line. However, instead of placing our wager there, we prefer the even +100 odds in value of Medvedev covering the set spread. We fully expect the 25-year-old to take advantage of a more fatigued Nadal and expect him to win the match in less than five sets. Medvedev will not pass up an opportunity to show the tennis world there is a changing of the guard at hand with his second consecutive Grand Slam title.

Daniil Medvedev vs. Rafael Nadal Pick

Article Author


Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest


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